> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.sotkn.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # A$140 Million Off the Year: Who Gets Paid When NEXTDC's Billing Date Slips - URL: https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-nextdc-fy27-guidance-cut-october-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-22T08:06:08.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-22T08:06:08.000Z - Description: NEXTDC cut its FY27 guidance by about A$140 million on 21 October, put every new project and land purchase on hold, and said its ability to draw A$6.7 billion of senior debt depends on when customers start paying. The halls are being built. The billing date is what moved. - Author: Sean - Tags: #market-australia, Markets *Two days ago the question at NEXTDC's Melbourne campus was a street of power poles. Yesterday it became a question about money. The Australian data centre operator took about A$140 million out of this year's revenue and earnings guidance, cut its spending plan, froze every new project and land purchase, and told investors that how much it can borrow now depends on when its customers start paying. The halls are still being built. The date the rent starts is what moved. The stuck step is the billing date.* **AUSTRALIA PULSE** · AI DATA CENTERS · Data as at 22 Oct 2026 · Next update: NEXTDC's capital spending review, due by its AGM on 20 Nov **Affects:** [AI Data Centers](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/) · [Hyperscalers](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/hyperscalers/) · [Neoclouds](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/neoclouds/) — Markets: [Australia](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/) · [Singapore](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/singapore/) · [Malaysia](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/malaysia/) · [US](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/us/) **In short:** On 21 October NEXTDC cut its FY27 guidance after Jemena said it will not restart the suspended works for M3 Melbourne before February 2027, pushing the next grid step into FY28\. Net revenue and underlying EBITDA guidance each fell by about A$140 million, to A$475 million to A$500 million and A$245 million to A$265 million. Spending was cut to A$4.5 billion to A$5.0 billion and new projects and land were frozen. NEXTDC has A$8.675 billion of liquidity, but its ability to draw A$6.7 billion of senior debt depends on billing. Builders on contracted capacity are paid first. Stuck step: the billing date. Map of who gets paid — not a buy list. Education only, not advice to buy or sell any security. Figures are as filed by NEXTDC or as reported by the publications named. Our own sums are labelled. ### The numbers that matter this week Taken out of FY27 guidance \~A$140m Each of net revenue and EBITDA · M3 contracts Stuck step New FY27 underlying EBITDA A$245–265m Was A$385–410m · FY26 was A$248.8m Reset New FY27 capital spending A$4.5–5.0bn Was A$5.25–5.75bn · contracted only Still spent Liquidity at 30 September A$8,675m A$6.7bn is senior debt tied to billing Conditional Jemena's earliest restart Feb 2027 First M3 grid step now FY28 Clock New projects and land deals On hold Site sales under review Frozen Figures from NEXTDC's ASX release of 21 October 2026 and its FY26 results of 27 August 2026\. Status chips are Second Order’s read. **On this page:** [Why it matters](#why-it-matters) · [What changed](#what-changed) · [The guidance](#the-guidance) · [The spending](#the-spending) · [The debt](#the-debt) · [The contract](#the-contract) · [The politics](#the-politics) · [The market](#the-market) · [Our math](#our-math) · [Who gets paid](#money-goes) · [What is stuck?](#still-stuck) · [Dates next](#dates) · [What would change this](#change-view) · [FAQ](#faq) ## Why does one guidance cut matter to who gets paid in AI data centres? Because it shows, in a company's own filing, exactly where the money stops when a powered hall arrives late. A data centre operator spends years and billions before a tenant pays it anything, and investors and lenders fund that gap on the promise of a date. When the date moves, the spending does not stop at once, but the income does. NEXTDC has just put numbers on that gap. The affected contracts at M3 Melbourne were worth about A$140 million of net revenue and the same again of underlying EBITDA in this year's plan. They have been taken out of guidance until the company can estimate them. That alone removes more than a third of the earnings it expected this year. Its spending plan is still A$4.5 billion to A$5.0 billion. And the debt that funds that spending has a condition attached that looks at when contracts start billing. Our [20 October piece on the M3 delay](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-nextdc-melbourne-power-delay-october-2026/) looked at the street of 66,000-volt wire that Jemena paused after residents objected. We will not re-tell that here. Yesterday's release adds what was missing then: the cause in NEXTDC's own words, a restart date, the size of the hit, and what the company is doing with its spending and its balance sheet. It also moves the question one step along the chain, from the wire to the bill. 1 · The halls **Who:** M3 construction inside existing buildings **Paid:** Continuing; contracted capacity still funded Paid on progress 2 · The wire **Who:** Jemena's 66 kV works **Paid:** Suspended; not back before February 2027 Waiting 3 · The billing date binds **Who:** When the M3 customer starts paying in full **Paid:** Now FY28; even current billing taken out of guidance Stuck step 4 · The debt draw **Who:** A$6.7 billion of undrawn senior debt **Paid:** Draws depend on expected billing profiles Paid last ## What changed on 21 October? NEXTDC halted its shares on 19 October to work out what the M3 power delay meant. It came back before the open on 21 October with a release that answered most of the open questions at once. - **The cause, named.** NEXTDC said Jemena suspended parts of the 66,000-volt line augmentation works needed for the next increase in grid supply to M3 in September, and has since formally told NEXTDC it does not expect to restart them before February 2027\. Jemena gave safety concerns, lack of access to work sites because of community opposition, and the local council, as road authority, not giving consent while further consultation takes place. - **A new power date.** On Jemena's current indicative estimate, NEXTDC now expects the next increase in grid supply at M3 during FY28, the year that starts in July 2027, with delivery and billing of the capacity that depends on it shortly after. - **Two later binds.** The first new transformer project at the Brooklyn Terminal Station, needed for later M3 power steps, will finish later than expected, and the Victorian permit for M3 Stages 6 and 7 is not now expected until 2027. - **Guidance cut.** FY27 net revenue to A$475 million to A$500 million and underlying EBITDA to A$245 million to A$265 million, both excluding the affected M3 contracts, including capacity already billing. - **Spending, a freeze and a debt warning.** Capital spending cut to A$4.5 billion to A$5.0 billion, new projects and land on hold, a review by the AGM on 20 November, and a warning that drawing all senior debt depends on billing. The market's verdict came fast. Reuters reported that the shares closed down 41.7% on the day, wiping about A$3 billion of market value, the worst day since the company listed in 2010\. We mention it once because the size of the move is part of the news, not as a view on the price. ## What exactly came out of the guidance? ![Chart of NEXTDC FY27 guidance before and after 21 October: net revenue A$615 to 640 million cut to A$475 to 500 million, underlying EBITDA A$385 to 410 million cut to A$245 to 265 million, against FY26 actuals](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/australia-nextdc-fy27-guidance-cut-october-2026-print.png) Guidance after the M3 contracts came out. · Education only. In August, NEXTDC guided FY27 net revenue at A$615 million to A$640 million and underlying EBITDA at A$385 million to A$410 million. Both now drop by about A$140 million. The company said the August numbers included approximately A$140 million of each from the affected M3 contracts, and that taking them out is the main reason for the cut. Everything else in the guidance is on the same basis as before. The striking detail is what NEXTDC chose to remove. It did not just take out capacity that was due to start billing later in the year. It also took out M3 capacity that is already billing. The reason it gave is plain: while parts of Jemena's works are suspended, the existing grid supply at M3 cannot be relied on to support the full power ramp the customer contracted for in halls already handed over. The customer has a contract for a certain amount of power in those halls, and the wire to deliver it is not there. That is why the cut is far larger than the outside estimate before the release. Citi had put about A$25 million of FY27 EBITDA at risk, based on about 70 MW of new Victorian billing sitting at M3\. The actual number is roughly five and a half times that, because NEXTDC took the whole contract out rather than just the part due to switch on. Citi said afterwards that the earnings impact could run beyond FY27, given the slower permit and the later transformer upgrade. Put the new range next to last year and the picture is stark. NEXTDC's underlying EBITDA in FY26 was A$248.8 million. The new FY27 range of A$245 million to A$265 million is roughly flat on that, after a year in which the company signed contracts that tripled its contracted capacity to 740.1 MW. Net revenue still grows, from A$405.0 million in FY26 to A$475 million to A$500 million, because other halls are switching on. But the operating leverage NEXTDC promised in August for FY27 has mostly gone into the M3 line. One caution cuts the other way. Guidance now excludes the M3 contracts entirely, but the actual FY27 results will include whatever they earn. A revised power ramp could bring some of the A$140 million back; service level credits could push the result below the new range. ## What happens to the spending? ![Chart of NEXTDC money: FY27 capital guidance cut from A$5.25 to 5.75 billion to A$4.5 to 5.0 billion, against A$8.675 billion of liquidity, of which A$6.7 billion is senior debt that depends on billing](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/australia-nextdc-fy27-guidance-cut-october-2026-shift.png) Capital cut, liquidity kept, debt tied to billing. · Education only. The headline cut is A$750 million, from A$5.25 billion to A$5.75 billion down to A$4.5 billion to A$5.0 billion. The real cut is bigger. The new figure includes about A$230 million of capitalised interest, which the old one did not. Before that, the new range is about A$4.27 billion to A$4.77 billion, a like-for-like cut of about A$980 million, or 17% to 19%. The new range also includes about A$500 million of fit-out that customers pay back. What is still being spent is narrow by design. NEXTDC said FY27 spending now goes only to new contracted capacity due for delivery in the next 12 to 18 months, or to works already close to complete. Uncontracted expansion projects and corporate technology projects have been deferred. Every new development and every land purchase is on hold for the foreseeable future, and the board will look at selling development sites it does not need in the near term. It is also a signal about order. When income is pushed out, a data centre operator protects the capacity customers have already signed for, because that is the part that will bill. Everything speculative waits. Those who sell land, design early-stage campuses or bid for uncontracted builds feel it first. A freeze on new development also lands on projects such as NEXTDC's planned S7 complex, which The Australian listed on 14 October among Sydney projects still seeking power. For why Sydney's transmission is sold out, see our [Sydney power Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-sydney-data-centre-power-lease-october-2026/) and the [NSW power-condition Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-nsw-data-centre-power-condition-october-2026/). ## Why does the billing date decide how much NEXTDC can borrow? This is the part of the release that matters most for who gets paid, and it is easy to miss. NEXTDC's A$8.675 billion of liquidity at 30 September is made of A$1.275 billion of cash, A$6.7 billion of undrawn senior debt facilities and a A$700 million hybrid securities series that can be drawn until 15 April 2027\. It is a large number. But most of it is a promise to lend, with conditions. The senior lenders test two things every half year: a gearing ratio of no more than 60% and an interest cover ratio of at least 1.5 times. The interest cover test has a feature built for a company that spends years ahead of rent. It lets NEXTDC count the annualised EBITDA of new customer contracts expected to start billing within 24 months of each test date. A contract that bills soon helps the ratio. A contract whose billing date slides out of that window stops helping. NEXTDC said it directly. Its ability to draw all of the A$6.7 billion while staying within covenants will depend on the timing of drawdowns and the expected billing profiles of new contracts at that time. A material change to expected billing could limit what it can draw, and the M3 delay could be such a change. The company expects to pass the 31 December test. The rest of the capital stack is looser. The A$1.1 billion of convertible notes issued on 17 September, the subordinated notes and the hybrids carry no maintenance tests. The earliest scheduled debt maturity is the A$1.5 billion revolving facility in December 2029, with a possible put on the convertibles on 17 September 2029\. There is no wall of debt due soon. There is a condition on new borrowing that looks at the billing date. This is why we call the billing date the stuck step. The lenders are not waiting on the wire as such. They are waiting on the day the contract turns into cash, because that day decides how much more they will lend. For the long version of signed-but-not-billing at NEXTDC, see the members' [NEXTDC Analysis](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/nextdc-signed-not-billing-stuck-step-what-price-assumes/), and for the wider pattern of halls signed ahead of the things they need, the [halls-before-customers Analysis](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/halls-signed-before-customers-where-cash-sticks/). ## What does the customer get while it waits? NEXTDC does not name the M3 customer. Our earlier reporting described a single long-term lease. Yesterday's release says the capacity deferred by Jemena's delay remains under contract, subject to the customer's rights, and that NEXTDC has a good relationship with the customer and is working with it on a revised power ramp. The customer's rights are the point. NEXTDC said the contracts provide for service level credits where capacity is delivered late or is not fully powered, and in some circumstances give the customer the right to terminate. NEXTDC is looking at whether it can claim relief under force majeure and other clauses. Neither the size of any credits nor the outcome of that assessment is known, which is exactly why the company took the contracts out of guidance rather than guess. In practice this means the first party paid on the delay may be the customer, in credits, before NEXTDC is paid in rent. For how a data centre lease turns power delivered into billing, and where credits sit, see our [data center lease explainer](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/data-center-lease-explained/). On the investor call, as reported by the ABC, group chief development officer Simon Cooper said NEXTDC is looking at other pole routes and at undergrounding, which takes time and is not an immediate option. Either could solve consent and still land in FY28. ## How much of this is now politics? What began as a dispute over poles now involves every level of government. - **Local.** The council, as road authority, has not given consent for Jemena's works while consultation continues. A residents' group, Citizens of Tottenham, welcomed the delay and repeated calls for remediation and compensation, the ABC reported. - **State.** The M3 Stages 6 and 7 permit waits until after the 28 November Victorian election; caretaker conventions start on 3 November. The ABC also reported Victorian plans for 150-metre buffer zones between data centres and homes or schools, with renewable energy and non-drinking water required. - **Federal.** Treasurer Jim Chalmers told CNBC the government welcomes data centre investment where it fits the national interest and is finalising national investment standards. Independent senator David Pocock proposed a 5% levy on data centres from next year, which he said would raise more than A$500 million by the end of 2030. RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Beadle put the lesson plainly to Reuters: community concerns present a real risk to the timing of delivery of contracted capacity for data centre owners. Macquarie's analysts said the later grid supply, together with the permit, delays M3's final capacity stages by several years, and that NEXTDC has limited other options to secure power. Neither is a rating; both are reads on the clock. ## Is this only NEXTDC's problem? No, though NEXTDC has the clearest numbers. Reuters noted a data centre listing withdrawn in Australia the week before. The Australian reported on 14 October that Sydney projects from Goodman, NEXTDC, Stack Infrastructure and AirTrunk are still seeking power, that Transgrid has signed connection agreements for 1.5 GW of new demand in western Sydney, and that Data Centres Australia says projects need a firm energisation commitment to sign customers, secure capital and start building. That last line is the general rule NEXTDC's release proves in particular. The energisation date sits under the customer contract, which sits under the billing date, which sits under the debt. Operators with power already delivered, such as [Macquarie Technology](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/what-does-macquarie-technology-do/) in Sydney, or deals that buy a hall with power already on, as in our [Sharon AI Catalyst](https://www.sotkn.com/catalyst/greensquare-sharon-ai-15-mw-reused-1995-sydney-hall/), are on the other side of that line. Our [Australia funding Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-ai-data-centre-funding-october-2026/) showed money getting dearer for signed-but-unbuilt projects; this is the same squeeze seen from inside a listed company. ## Our math: what do the numbers say? - Revenue guidance: the midpoint falls from A$627.5 million to A$487.5 million, down A$140 million or about 22% (our arithmetic). - Earnings guidance: the EBITDA midpoint falls from A$397.5 million to A$255 million, down A$142.5 million or about 36% (our arithmetic). - Against last year: the new EBITDA range is about 1.5% below to 6.5% above FY26's A$248.8 million, while net revenue is about 17% to 23% above FY26's A$405.0 million (our arithmetic). - Against the outside estimate: A$140 million is about 5.6 times the roughly A$25 million of FY27 EBITDA Citi had put at risk before the release (our arithmetic). - Spending: the capital midpoint falls from A$5,500 million to A$4,750 million, about 14%; on a like-for-like basis before capitalised interest, to about A$4,520 million, about 18% (our arithmetic). - Liquidity mix: A$6,700 million of A$8,675 million, about 77%, is undrawn senior debt whose full use depends on billing profiles; cash plus the hybrid series is about A$1,975 million (our arithmetic). - Spending against unconditional money: the A$4,750 million midpoint is about 2.4 times the A$1,975 million of cash and hybrid capacity, so this year's plan still leans on senior debt draws (our arithmetic). - Signed versus billing at 30 June: 175.0 MW billing of 740.1 MW contracted, about 24%, with 197 MW guided to convert in FY27 and 221 MW in FY28 (our arithmetic on NEXTDC's August figures; the August conversion plan predates the cut). What this tells you: NEXTDC is not short of money today, and its spending on contracted halls carries on. But a third of this year's expected earnings now depends on one customer, one wire and one permit, and most of the money for the build is a lending promise that reads the billing calendar. The variable is not whether the contract exists. It is when it pays. ## Who gets paid first? ![Infographic: who gets paid after NEXTDC took its M3 Melbourne contracts out of FY27 guidance, and why the billing date is the stuck step](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/australia-nextdc-fy27-guidance-cut-october-2026-infographic.png) Who gets paid / stuck step after the guidance cut. · Education only. First, the builders and equipment suppliers on contracted capacity — now, on progress. NEXTDC still plans to spend A$4.5 billion to A$5.0 billion this year and has pointed all of it at capacity customers have signed and that is due within 12 to 18 months. Construction of the M3 halls is continuing inside the existing buildings. Contractors, electrical and cooling suppliers on those jobs are paid as they go. Second, the network and the lenders — regardless of the date. Large users pay up front for their connection works, as our earlier piece set out, so Jemena is not waiting on rent. Lenders and note holders are owed interest on what is drawn whether M3 bills this year or next. For why utilities tend to collect before halls do, see the members' [utilities Analysis](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/utilities-bill-data-centers-before-power-where-cash-sticks/). Third, the customer — possibly, in credits. If capacity is late or not fully powered, the contracts provide for service level credits. That is money flowing from NEXTDC to the tenant, not the other way, until the power arrives. Fourth, rival landlords with power already on — at the next lease. A tenant that cannot run compute at M3 on time may place its next block of demand where it can. Nothing in the release says that has happened. Fifth, NEXTDC — when billing starts in full. The A$140 million is deferred and uncertain, not written off on what the company has said. It comes back when power lets the customer's ramp proceed, less any credits. Last, anyone selling NEXTDC land or bidding for uncontracted builds — on hold. All new development and land acquisitions are frozen for the foreseeable future, and some development sites may be sold. That is the one group whose payment moved from later to not yet. One-line rule: after 21 October, builders on contracted capacity and the network are paid first, the customer may be paid in credits, and NEXTDC and its next borrowings wait for the billing date. The stuck step is the billing date. ## So what is the stuck step? The billing date: the day the contracted M3 capacity starts paying in full. Not the contract: it is still in place, subject to the customer's rights. Not the building: the halls are being built. Not, for now, the money: NEXTDC has A$8.675 billion of liquidity and no scheduled debt maturity before December 2029\. The wire is the cause, and we covered it on 20 October. The billing date is where the cause turns into money, and three things make it stick: - **It depends on parties NEXTDC does not control.** Council consent, a state permit after an election, and transformers at Brooklyn Terminal Station. - **It feeds the debt.** The interest cover test counts contracts billing within 24 months. A billing date that slides makes the next draw harder, at the moment the company is still spending on other contracted halls. - **It sets who pays whom.** Until the power ramp is agreed, service level credits and possible termination rights sit with the customer, and NEXTDC cannot yet say what FY27 the contracts will earn. This is the pattern in our [stuck-step Analysis](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/where-does-the-stuck-step-move/): when the bind moves, the people who clear it are paid before the people who wait on it. At M3 the bind moved from the street to the bill. ## Which dates test this read next? ![Calendar of dates that test the NEXTDC read, from Victoria's caretaker period on 3 November and the AGM on 20 November to Jemena's earliest restart in February 2027 and FY28 power](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/australia-nextdc-fy27-guidance-cut-october-2026-calendar.png) Dates that test the read. · Education only. - **3 November 2026 —** Victorian caretaker conventions begin; no permit decision expected during the campaign. - **20 November 2026 —** NEXTDC AGM: outcome of the capital spending review and a further M3 update promised. - **28 November 2026 —** Victorian state election; the M3 Stages 6 and 7 permit is now expected in 2027. - **31 December 2026 —** Next covenant test date; NEXTDC expects to comply. Half-year results to this date will also carry any change in property values from the delay. - **February 2027 —** Earliest restart of Jemena's suspended works, on Jemena's notice to NEXTDC. - **15 April 2027 —** Last day to draw the A$700 million hybrid securities series, subject to customary conditions. - **FY28 (July 2027 to June 2028) —** Next increase in grid supply at M3 on Jemena's indicative estimate, with billing to follow shortly after. ## What would change this view? - A revised power ramp agreed with the customer that keeps current halls billing would bring part of the A$140 million back into FY27 and ease the bind. - An earlier Jemena restart, or a workable alternative route or underground option with a date, would move the billing date forward. - A customer move to use termination rights, or large service level credits, would turn a timing problem into a lost contract and move the bind to demand. - A covenant change or a statement that senior draws are constrained would show the bind has reached the balance sheet. - Site sales at good prices, announced at or after the AGM, would show the freeze funding contracted halls rather than shrinking the company. ## Practical takeaways - About A$140 million each of FY27 net revenue and EBITDA came out of NEXTDC's guidance for the affected M3 contracts - Spending falls to A$4.5 billion to A$5.0 billion, all on contracted capacity; new projects and land are frozen - A$6.7 billion of senior debt can be drawn in full only if billing profiles hold - Builders on contracted capacity and the network are paid first; the customer may get credits; NEXTDC waits - Stuck step: the billing date ## FAQ **What did NEXTDC announce on 21 October?** It cut its guidance for the year to 30 June 2027\. Net revenue is now expected at A$475 million to A$500 million, down from A$615 million to A$640 million, and underlying EBITDA at A$245 million to A$265 million, down from A$385 million to A$410 million. Capital spending guidance fell to A$4.5 billion to A$5.0 billion. The cut comes from taking the affected contracts at its M3 Melbourne data centre out of guidance, because the next step-up in grid power there is now expected in FY28. **Why does the billing date matter for NEXTDC's debt?** Its senior lenders test an interest cover ratio of at least 1.5 times, and the test lets NEXTDC count the annualised EBITDA of new contracts expected to start billing within 24 months. NEXTDC said its ability to draw all A$6.7 billion of undrawn senior debt depends on the expected billing profiles at the time, and that a delay to power at M3 could be the kind of change that limits it. So the billing date feeds straight into how much it can borrow. **Is this investment advice?** No. Education only. It maps who gets paid and which step is stuck. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and we leave out share prices, broker ratings and price targets on purpose. ## Keep reading on the map - [Australia Markets hub](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/) — country page - [NEXTDC M3 power delay](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-nextdc-melbourne-power-delay-october-2026/) — the street of wire, 20 October - [NEXTDC signed-not-billing Analysis](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/nextdc-signed-not-billing-stuck-step-what-price-assumes/) — 740 MW signed, 175 MW billing - [Sydney power Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-sydney-data-centre-power-lease-october-2026/) · [NSW power-condition Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-nsw-data-centre-power-condition-october-2026/) · [Australia funding Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-ai-data-centre-funding-october-2026/) - [Goodman power-bank Analysis](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/goodman-power-bank-lease-stuck-step-what-price-assumes/) — power as the asset - [Malaysia unused-power piece](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/malaysia/malaysia-data-centre-unused-power-charge-october-2026/) · [Singapore data centre REIT Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/singapore/singapore-data-centre-reit-ipo-delay-october-2026/) · [Virginia first-power Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/us/us-virginia-3gw-data-center-first-power-october-2026/) - [AI Data Centers on the stack](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/) · [What NEXTDC does](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/what-does-nextdc-do/) · [What Macquarie Technology does](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/what-does-macquarie-technology-do/) - [Data center lease explained](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/data-center-lease-explained/) · [How long it takes to build](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-an-ai-data-center/) · [What it costs](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/how-much-does-it-cost-to-build-an-ai-data-center/) - [All Markets doors](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/) — Taiwan, Korea, US, China, Singapore, Australia, Malaysia **Get the Wire.** Second Order’s free daily brief on what moved in the AI chip map. [Read the Wire →](https://www.sotkn.com/the-wire/) · [Subscribe free →](https://www.sotkn.com/#/portal/signup) **Members’ Analysis (teaser):** When the stuck step moves, where does cash stick? The free line: whoever clears the bind is paid before whoever waits on it. [Read the Analysis →](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/where-does-the-stuck-step-move/) **How we check this.** Guidance, spending, liquidity, covenants, contract terms, Jemena’s restart, the permit timing and the freeze come from NEXTDC’s ASX release of 21 October 2026\. FY26 actuals, the forward order book and the original FY27 guidance come from NEXTDC’s FY26 results of 27 August 2026\. The market reaction and the Macquarie and RBC comments are as reported by Reuters on 21 October; Citi’s comments by CNBC on 21 October and, before the announcement, by Reuters via The Edge Malaysia on 20 October. The investor-call remarks, the levy proposal and the Victorian buffer-zone plan are as reported by the ABC on 21 October. We have not listened to the investor call ourselves. The customer at M3 is not named by NEXTDC and we do not guess it. Share prices, broker ratings and price targets are left out on purpose. Anything we worked out ourselves is labelled “our arithmetic”. The references we used are listed at the end. [Our editorial standards →](https://www.sotkn.com/editorial-standards/) Not investment advice. Do your own research. --- ### References 1. NEXTDC Limited, ASX release: M3 Melbourne power delay and revised FY27 guidance, 21 Oct 2026\. [marketindex.com.au](https://www.marketindex.com.au/data-api/api/v1/announcements/XASX:NXT:2A1705181/pdf/inline/m3-melbourne-power-delay-revised-fy27-guidance?ref=sotkn.com) — revised FY27 net revenue, underlying EBITDA and capital expenditure guidance; about A$140 million of each from the affected M3 contracts; liquidity at 30 September; covenants and drawdown condition; service level credits, termination rights and force majeure; Jemena not before February 2027; Stages 6 and 7 permit after the election; development and land freeze. 2. NEXTDC Limited, FY26 results announcement, 27 Aug 2026\. [announcements.asx.com.au](https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260827/pdf/073c04gt4ts40y.pdf?ref=sotkn.com) — FY26 net revenue and underlying EBITDA; 740.1 MW contracted, 175.0 MW billing, 565.1 MW forward order book; 197 MW of FY27 and 221 MW of FY28 billing conversion; original FY27 guidance. 3. Reuters via DealStreetAsia, Australia's NextDC shares tank 42% amid revenue delay, deferred plans, 21 Oct 2026\. [dealstreetasia.com](https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/australias-nextdc-shares-tank-42-amid-revenue-delay-deferred-plans-498788?ref=sotkn.com) — market reaction and worst day since the 2010 listing; Macquarie and RBC Capital Markets comments; a data centre IPO withdrawn in Australia the week before. 4. CNBC, Australian data center operator NextDC's shares plunge after it slashes earnings forecast, 21 Oct 2026\. [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/australia-data-center-operator-nexdc-datacenter.html?ref=sotkn.com) — Citi's note that the impact could run beyond FY27; Treasurer Jim Chalmers on national investment standards for data centres. 5. ABC News, NextDC value on ASX smashed by delays to West Footscray data centre, 21 Oct 2026\. [abc.net.au](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-21/west-footscray-data-centre-delays-nextdc-value-asx-vic/107291744?ref=sotkn.com) — investor call comments on alternative pole routes and undergrounding; Senator David Pocock's proposed 5% data centre levy; Victoria's proposed 150-metre buffer zones; residents' response. 6. The Edge Malaysia (Reuters), Australia's NEXTDC halts share trading before update on data centre power delay, 20 Oct 2026\. [theedgemalaysia.com](https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/822262?ref=sotkn.com) — Citi's pre-announcement estimate of about 70 MW of FY27 Victorian billing at M3 and about A$25 million of FY27 EBITDA at risk. 7. The Australian via Stockhead, Data centre projects face years in limbo as electricity capacity sells out, 14 Oct 2026\. [stockhead.com.au](https://stockhead.com.au/tech/data-centre-projects-face-years-in-limbo-as-electricity-capacity-sells-out/?ref=sotkn.com) — Sydney projects still seeking power, including NEXTDC's S7; Transgrid's 1.5 GW of signed western Sydney connections; Data Centres Australia on energisation commitments.