> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.sotkn.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # 25 Months of Stock: Who Gets Paid While China's Cambricon Still Waits on Wafers - URL: https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-cambricon-q3-inventory-october-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-26T02:16:57.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-26T02:16:56.000Z - Description: Cambricon on 23 Oct printed Q3 sales of RMB 3.53bn. Foundries are paid in cash and notes. Wafer and memory slots are still the stuck step. - Author: Sean - Tags: #market-china Cambricon Technologies, China's listed designer of AI accelerator chips and boards, printed unaudited third-quarter figures on the evening of 23 October. Third-quarter sales were RMB 3.53 billion, up 104.47%. Who gets paid is Cambricon on the design sale, and foundries, memory and materials suppliers on the cash and notes that already left. The stuck step is still wafer and memory slots: inventory of RMB 11.66 billion is about 25 months of goods at this year's nine-month pace, and a RMB 502 million write-down says the stock is aging before it ships. **CHINA PULSE** · Data as at 26 Oct 2026 · Next update: after Moore Threads Q3 on 29 Oct or Cambricon’s Q4 print **Affects:** [Semiconductors](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/semiconductors/) · [HBM](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/hbm-explained/) · [Hyperscalers](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/hyperscalers/) — **Markets:** [China](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/) · [Korea](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/) · [Taiwan](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/taiwan/) **In short:** Cambricon, 23 Oct: Q3 sales RMB 3.53bn (+104.47%), attributable profit RMB 1.40bn (+147.74%). Nine-month sales RMB 9.53bn. Inventory RMB 11.66bn. Notes payable RMB 4.97bn. A RMB 502m write-down on aged raw materials. Q3 operating cash turned negative at −RMB 84m even as profit hit a record. Cambricon is paid on the book. Foundries are paid in cash and notes. Wafer and memory slots are still the stuck step. Map of who gets paid — not a buy list. Education only, not advice to buy or sell any security. Figures: Cambricon Q3 report, board-dated 23 Oct 2026; impairment notice 2026-038 and operations notice 2026-042, 24 Oct. Own sums are labelled “our arithmetic”. ## The numbers that matter this month Q3 revenue RMB 3.53bn +104.47% YoY · +13.5% vs Q2 (Yicai overlay) Headline 9M revenue RMB 9.53bn +106.76% vs 9M 2025 · already above 2025 full-year sales Primary Q3 attributable profit RMB 1.40bn +147.74% · 9M profit RMB 3.71bn, 80.38% above 2025 full year Paid on the book Inventory, 30 Sep RMB 11.66bn Was RMB 4.94bn at end-2025 · larger than 9M sales Stockpile Notes payable RMB 4.97bn Was RMB 0.35bn at end-2025 · no short-term bank borrowing Suppliers paid Wafer and memory slots Still the bind Aged strategic raw materials. RMB 502m write-down. Empty sockets are not a shipment. Stuck step Status chips are Second Order’s read. Figures come from Cambricon’s Q3 report, 23 Oct 2026, and the 24 Oct notices. Sequential Q2 sales: Yicai, 23 Oct. ## Why does China matter now? Because China is building a closed, parallel AI stack, and this week's filing is the accelerator-designer receipt: chips are selling, cash and notes are leaving for wafers and materials, and the slots that turn a stockpile into a shippable board are still the bind. Export rules keep many of the best accelerators and advanced HBM stacks out. The response is domestic designers such as Cambricon and [Hygon](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-hygon-q3-hbm-october-2026/), foundries such as [SMIC](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-smic-margin-logicfolding-october-2026/), and memory such as [CXMT](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-cxmt-server-dram-october-2026/). A designer does not own a fab. For a Chinese designer, much of that capacity has to be found at home. Today is Cambricon, 688256.SH — not Hygon’s CPU-plus-DCU book, not the 21 Oct Ascend card pool, not the 25 Oct intensity print. 1 · Design sale **Who:** Cambricon (cloud and edge accelerators, boards, systems, IP) **Paid:** RMB 3.53bn of Q3 sales; RMB 9.53bn in nine months Paid on the book 2 · Wafer, memory, materials cash **Who:** Foundries, memory, substrates, assembly **Paid:** inventory RMB 11.66bn; prepayments RMB 3.04bn; notes RMB 4.97bn Paid in cash and notes 3 · The write-down **Who:** Cambricon’s P&L, not a new supplier **Paid:** RMB 502m charged as aged strategic raw materials Cost of buying early 4 · Wafer and memory slots **Who:** Not named in this filing **Paid:** Not as a shipment. A board without a filled socket is stock waiting Stuck step **Labels:** *Paid on the book* \= revenue as chips and boards are billed. *Paid in cash and notes* \= inventory, prepayments and bills already left Cambricon. *Stuck step* \= no named wafer or memory volume that turns the pile into shipments. If you only remember one thing: a 104% sales jump is a P&L print. It is not a slot print. The cash and the notes went upstream. The sockets in this week's metaphor are empty. ## What changed on 23–24 October Three Cambricon papers landed in two days. One is the quarter. Two are the cost of buying early, and the floor the company still wants to hit. On the evening of 23 October, Cambricon filed its unaudited [third-quarter report](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-10-24/1225620944.PDF?ref=sotkn.com) (board date 23 October). Third-quarter revenue RMB 3.5308 billion, up 104.47%. Attributable profit RMB 1.4036 billion, up 147.74%. Nine-month revenue RMB 9.5264 billion, up 106.76%; attributable profit RMB 3.7145 billion, up 131.49%. Q3 operating cash was minus RMB 83.7 million. Nine-month operating cash was still plus RMB 227.6 million. [Yicai](https://www.yicai.com/news/103407121.html?ref=sotkn.com) carried the headlines the same evening, including the sequential overlay: second-quarter sales of RMB 3.111 billion, so the third quarter rose about 13.5% from the second. On 24 October, notice 2026-038 booked a RMB 501.6 million inventory write-down for the nine months. The [impairment notice](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-10-24/1225620959.PDF?ref=sotkn.com) says the main reason was that the company had built a “strategic” stock of raw materials earlier, and as that stock aged the provision grew. A credit-impairment reversal of RMB 15.0 million left a net RMB 486.6 million hit to nine-month profit before tax. The same day, notice 2026-042 on [recent operations](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-10-24/1225621664.PDF?ref=sotkn.com) restated the floors in the July share-incentive plan: 2026 revenue of at least RMB 13.5 billion; 2026–27 combined at least RMB 40.5 billion; 2026–28 combined at least RMB 100 billion. Those are vesting conditions, not guidance. Nine-month profit is already 80.38% above 2025’s full-year RMB 2.059 billion. Gross margin, the company said, has held as sales doubled. Overlay, not this filing: [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-23/ai-chipmaker-cambricon-s-sales-miss-in-sign-of-output-constraint?ref=sotkn.com) on 23 October said the quarter missed street estimates of about RMB 6.26 billion and read that as an output constraint. We use the filing. The inventory line is the same story without the street number. ![Horizontal bars: Cambricon Q3 sales RMB 3.53 billion, nine-month sales RMB 9.53 billion, inventory RMB 11.66 billion, notes payable RMB 4.97 billion, prepayments RMB 3.04 billion](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/china-cambricon-q3-inventory-october-2026-split.png) Sales booked. Stock still sits. Source: Cambricon Q3 report, 23 Oct 2026\. Education only. ## Our math: labelled our arithmetic Cambricon already printed the yuan. What follows is division on those figures, labelled as ours. - **Sequential sales.** Nine-month revenue minus Q3 leaves H1 of RMB 5.996bn (our arithmetic). Yicai’s Q2 of RMB 3.111bn implies a Q3 sequential rise of 13.49% (our arithmetic on Yicai plus the filing). - **Gross margin.** Nine-month cost of sales RMB 4.141bn on sales of RMB 9.526bn is 56.53%, versus 55.29% a year earlier (our arithmetic). Faster sales did not thin the margin. - **Months of stock.** Inventory of RMB 11.665bn is 2.817 times nine-month cost of sales, or 25.4 months of goods at this year’s nine-month pace. It is 1.224 times nine-month revenue and 2.36 times the end-2025 stock (our arithmetic). - **Prepayments and notes.** Prepayments of RMB 3.044bn are 4.09 times end-2025\. Notes payable of RMB 4.966bn are 14.2 times end-2025 (our arithmetic). More supply is paid for, on paper, than has shipped. - **Cash versus sales.** Cash collected from customers RMB 10.671bn, or 112.0% of nine-month revenue. Customers paid. Cash paid for goods RMB 8.994bn, or 2.17 times cost of sales (our arithmetic). That is the stocking. - **The Q3 cash turn.** Nine-month operating cash RMB 227.6m minus Q3 of −RMB 83.7m leaves implied H1 operating cash of RMB 311.3m (our arithmetic). The third quarter spent it on goods. - **Working-capital soak.** Inventory, prepayments and receivables absorbed about RMB 9.29bn versus end-2025 — 2.50 times nine-month profit of RMB 3.71bn (our arithmetic). - **The write-down.** RMB 501.6m is 13.5% of reported nine-month profit, or 11.9% of profit before tax if the charge is added back (our arithmetic). - **Liquidity.** Cash plus trading securities RMB 4.366bn, down from RMB 5.579bn at end-2025\. No short-term bank loans. Total liabilities RMB 7.236bn, 4.54 times end-2025 (our arithmetic). - **The 2026 floor.** Hitting RMB 13.5bn needs RMB 3.974bn in Q4, 12.5% above Q3 (our arithmetic). Vesting floors, not guidance. ![Our arithmetic on Cambricon’s 23 Oct filing: inventory 2.82 times nine-month costs, 25.4 months of stock, prepayments 4.09 times, Q4 floor RMB 3.97 billion](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/china-cambricon-q3-inventory-october-2026-math.png) Our arithmetic from Cambricon Q3, 23 Oct 2026, and the 24 Oct incentive floors. Education only. What this tells you: the designer is selling more boards, keeping a slightly fatter margin than a year ago, and sending cash and notes to the supply step faster than it turns that supply into shipments. It does not tell you what a Cambricon share is worth. We do not do price calls. The RMB 100 billion figure is a vesting condition. It is not a forecast. ## Where does the money stick? At the step that already has a cash cheque or a supplier note, not at the step that still has empty sockets. ![Infographic: where China cash sticks on the Cambricon print — design sale paid on the book, foundries paid in cash and notes, wafer and memory slots still the stuck step](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/china-cambricon-q3-inventory-october-2026-infographic.png) Stock is paid. Sockets stay empty. Education only. **1\. Cambricon, on the design sale.** Third-quarter revenue of RMB 3.53 billion is the P&L receipt. Nine-month sales of RMB 9.53 billion, up 107%, say that receipt is still doubling. Gross margin of 56.53% on our arithmetic says the doubling is not a dump. Research spend in the quarter was RMB 523 million. That is not the stuck step. **2\. Foundries, memory, substrates and assembly, in cash and notes.** Inventory of RMB 11.66 billion, prepayments of RMB 3.04 billion and notes payable of RMB 4.97 billion are the cash-and-paper receipt. Cash paid for goods of RMB 8.99 billion, 2.17 times cost of sales on our arithmetic, is the evidence. Whoever holds those wafer, memory and substrate slots is paid before a finished board sits in a cluster. Our 16 October pulse had Chinese 8-inch lines full on AI power chips. The 9 October SMIC pulse had utilisation at 93.7% and a 26–28% margin guide. This print is the designer paying into that tightness, on a different product, in cash and in bills. **3\. Wafer and memory slots — not yet as shipments.** A Cambricon board still needs a process slot and a memory stack. The filing does not name a foundry, a stack supplier, or a qualified-attach volume. It names aged raw materials and a write-down. CXMT’s HBM3E remains small-batch, as our [September HBM pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-hbm-access-september-2026/) mapped, and CXMT’s 12 October door was server DRAM, not HBM volume. Legal advanced HBM into China stays constrained. Empty sockets are the bind. One-line rule: while this shape holds, the book is Cambricon’s, the cash and the notes are the suppliers’, and wafer and memory slots still wait. ## Is wafer and memory still stuck? Yes. A 104% sales print is a designer that can bill. It is not a supply step that can ship at the pace the stockpile implies. Three things keep it stuck. First, this filing. Cambricon names market expansion as the reason sales rose, and strategic raw-material stocking — then age — as the reason the write-down grew. No slot count, no take-or-pay, no qualified-attach percentage. Inventory is larger than nine months of sales. Notes payable are 14 times the end-2025 level on our arithmetic. That is not a company that found open capacity this quarter. Second, the rest of the China door. Hygon’s 19 Oct Q3 stocked wafers to grab slots and still had empty HBM sockets. The 21 Oct Ascend 950DT pulse had 10,000 of 30,000 cards in the first pool. CXMT’s year-end aim is denser server DRAM, not HBM3E volume. Nothing in Cambricon’s three papers moved those names. Third, the overlay. Bloomberg’s street miss is the same shape as the inventory line: demand is not the bind. Output is. The RMB 11.66 billion stockpile is in the filing. If wafer and memory slots cleared, the stuck step would move. The next candidates are advanced packaging and power for the largest domestic clusters. Until a named slot volume prints, or inventory falls while sales hold, read China accelerator hardware through supply first. See [HBM, explained](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/hbm-explained/). ## What dates matter ![Calendar of dates that test whether wafer and memory slots stay the bind after Cambricon’s 23 October filing](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/china-cambricon-q3-inventory-october-2026-calendar.png) Dates that test the read. Education only. - 23 October 2026 — Cambricon Q3\. Sales RMB 3.53bn. Inventory RMB 11.66bn. Done. - 24 October 2026 — Write-down of RMB 502m and the RMB 13.5bn 2026 floor restated. Done. - 28 October 2026, 09:00 Seoul — SK hynix Q3, per the [21 Oct invitation](https://news.skhynix.com/en/q3-2026-earnings-conference-call-invitation/?ref=sotkn.com). The memory clock. The test: does HBM supply language ease, or stay tight? - 29 October 2026 — Moore Threads Q3, per the Shanghai Stock Exchange schedule on [10jqka](http://data.10jqka.com.cn/financial/yypl/op/code/code/688795/?ref=sotkn.com). The test: do other Chinese GPU designers also carry swelling stock and prepayments? - 31 October 2026 — CXMT’s formal report window. The test: a server-memory print, not an HBM print. Do not mix them. - Fourth quarter of 2026 — Cambricon Q4\. The test: does revenue clear about RMB 3.97bn, and does inventory start to fall? - Not set — a named foundry utilisation print, or a qualified HBM attach, against this stockpile. That would move the stuck step. The 23 October filing coloured the cash and the notes. Only a named slot print, or a Q4 where inventory falls with sales still doubling, can move the stuck step. ## How is this different from the Hygon Q3 pulse? The 20 October [Hygon pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-hygon-q3-hbm-october-2026/) was a CPU-plus-DCU designer: nine-month sales RMB 14.95 billion, operating cash minus RMB 2.44 billion, advanced HBM still the stuck step. Who got paid was Hygon on the book and the foundries on the cash. Today is a different designer and a different receipt. Who gets paid is Cambricon on the accelerator sale and the suppliers on cash plus notes. The stuck step is still supply — wafer and memory slots — but the evidence is an aged raw-material pile and a write-down, not a named HBM miss. Same China door. Different paper. It is also different from the 24 October [catalyst](https://www.sotkn.com/catalyst/cambricon-q3-sales-104-percent-inventory-rmb11-7-billion/) on the same three papers (short desk, same print), from the [21 Oct Ascend pool](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-ascend-950dt-10000-card-pool-october-2026/) (cards, not a listed P&L), and from the 25 Oct [compute-versus-power pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-ai-compute-146-percent-power-35-percent-october-2026/) (an official intensity print). Members’ [stuck-step map](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/where-does-the-stuck-step-move/) is the longer clock this receipt sits on. ## What would change this view? - Cambricon, in a later report, names a foundry, a memory supplier, a qualified-attach volume, or a take-or-pay — and inventory falls while sales hold. - Moore Threads or a peer posts Q3 with inventory shrinking, not swelling. - SK hynix or CXMT posts verified HBM volume into named China training clusters, not only samples. - A named foundry reports open slots on the processes Cambricon uses. - Q4 sales clear about RMB 3.97 billion and the write-down does not recur. That would not, on its own, name the slot. - A BIS or allied licensing change reopens meaningful legal advanced-HBM channels into China. The view stays intact while sales climb, inventory stays larger than nine-month costs, notes payable stay elevated, the write-down language stays “aged strategic raw materials,” and no named slot volume prints. ## Practical takeaways - Cambricon, 23 Oct: Q3 sales RMB 3.53bn, up 104.47%; attributable profit RMB 1.40bn, up 147.74%; nine-month sales RMB 9.53bn - Inventory RMB 11.66bn; prepayments RMB 3.04bn; notes payable RMB 4.97bn; Q3 operating cash −RMB 84m - Our arithmetic: 25.4 months of stock; 9M gross margin 56.53%; working-capital soak about RMB 9.29bn; Q4 needs \~RMB 3.97bn to hit the 2026 floor - RMB 502m write-down on aged strategic raw materials, 24 Oct. Vesting floors of RMB 13.5bn / 40.5bn / 100bn are not guidance - Who gets paid: Cambricon on the design sale; foundries, memory and materials on cash and notes - Stuck step: wafer and memory slots. A booked board is not a filled socket - Watch 28 Oct (SK hynix), 29 Oct (Moore Threads), 31 Oct (CXMT), and Cambricon Q4 ## FAQ **What did Cambricon print on 23 October 2026?** An unaudited third-quarter report, board-dated 23 October. Third-quarter revenue was RMB 3.53 billion, up 104.47%. Attributable profit was RMB 1.40 billion, up 147.74%. Nine-month revenue was RMB 9.53 billion. Inventory on 30 September was RMB 11.66 billion. Q3 operating cash was minus RMB 84 million. **Who gets paid on this print?** Cambricon, on the design sale, as chips and boards are billed. Foundries, memory, substrate and assembly suppliers, in cash and notes, through inventory of RMB 11.66 billion, prepayments of RMB 3.04 billion and notes payable of RMB 4.97 billion. This is a map of who gets paid, not a buy list. **Why are wafer and memory slots still the stuck step if sales doubled?** Because a designer still needs a process slot and a memory stack, and this filing does not name either. Inventory is about 25 months of goods at this year’s nine-month pace on our arithmetic. A RMB 502 million write-down says the strategic raw-material pile is aging. Sales are a P&L print. Slots are a socket print. **Is the RMB 100 billion figure a forecast?** No. It is the cumulative 2026 to 2028 revenue floor in the July share-incentive plan, restated on 24 October. The 2026 floor is RMB 13.5 billion. Those are vesting conditions, not guidance. **Is this investment advice?** No. Education only. It maps who gets paid and which step is stuck. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. ## Keep reading on the map - [China Markets hub](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/) — country page - [Hygon Q3 vs HBM (20 Oct)](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-hygon-q3-hbm-october-2026/) — the other designer book, HBM still empty - [Cambricon catalyst (24 Oct)](https://www.sotkn.com/catalyst/cambricon-q3-sales-104-percent-inventory-rmb11-7-billion/) — same three papers, short desk - [China HBM Access (19 Sep)](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-hbm-access-september-2026/) — memory access this filing does not move - [SMIC margin pulse (9 Oct)](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/china/china-smic-margin-logicfolding-october-2026/) — foundry utilisation - [HBM, explained](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/hbm-explained/) — the short clock - [Where the stuck step moves](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/where-does-the-stuck-step-move/) — members’ map - [All Markets doors](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/) — Taiwan, Korea, US, China **Get the Wire.** Second Order’s free daily brief on what moved in the AI chip map. [Read the Wire →](https://www.sotkn.com/the-wire/) · [Subscribe free →](https://www.sotkn.com/#/portal/signup) **Members’ Analysis (teaser):** When packaging catches up, the bind moves through memory to power. This cash-and-notes statement is the designer version of that clock. [Read the Analysis →](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/where-does-the-stuck-step-move/) **How we check this.** P&L, cash, inventory, notes: Cambricon Q3, 23 October 2026\. Write-down: notice 2026-038\. Floors: notice 2026-042\. Sequential Q2: Yicai overlay. SK hynix 28 Oct and Moore Threads 29 Oct: company invitation and SSE schedule. Own sums labelled “our arithmetic”. [Our editorial standards →](https://www.sotkn.com/editorial-standards/) Not investment advice. Do your own research. --- ### References 1. Cambricon Technologies, 2026 third-quarter report, 23 Oct 2026\. [cninfo PDF](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-10-24/1225620944.PDF?ref=sotkn.com) — Q3 and 9M sales, profit, cash, inventory, prepayments, notes payable, cost of sales. 2. Cambricon, notice 2026-038 on asset impairment, 24 Oct 2026\. [cninfo PDF](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-10-24/1225620959.PDF?ref=sotkn.com) — RMB 501.6m inventory write-down on aged strategic raw materials. 3. Cambricon, notice 2026-042 on recent operations, 24 Oct 2026\. [cninfo PDF](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-10-24/1225621664.PDF?ref=sotkn.com) — 2025 profit RMB 2.059bn; 2026–28 revenue floors; margin comment. 4. Yicai, 寒武纪前三季度营收净利润双双翻倍, 23 Oct 2026\. [yicai.com](https://www.yicai.com/news/103407121.html?ref=sotkn.com) — same-evening headline; Q2 sales RMB 3.111bn overlay. 5. Bloomberg, AI Chipmaker Cambricon Sales Miss Signals Output Constraint, 23 Oct 2026\. [bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-23/ai-chipmaker-cambricon-s-sales-miss-in-sign-of-output-constraint?ref=sotkn.com) — overlay; street \~RMB 6.26bn. Not used as a filing number. 6. SK hynix, Q3 2026 earnings conference call invitation, 21 Oct 2026\. [news.skhynix.com](https://news.skhynix.com/en/q3-2026-earnings-conference-call-invitation/?ref=sotkn.com) — 28 Oct, 09:00 Seoul. 7. 10jqka, Shanghai Stock Exchange third-quarter disclosure schedule for Moore Threads (688795), checked 26 Oct 2026\. [10jqka](http://data.10jqka.com.cn/financial/yypl/op/code/code/688795/?ref=sotkn.com) — 29 October date.