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# 279 of 522 Told ‘No Supply’: Who Gets Paid While Korea’s AI Data Centres Wait for the Grid
- URL: https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-ai-data-centre-grid-queue-october-2026/
- Published: 2026-10-29T13:25:49.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-29T13:25:48.000Z
- Description: KEPCO's first technical review said no supply for 279 of 522 Seoul-area data centre requests. On 26 October the minister said AI data centre demand is smaller than planned. Sites next to power plants get paid first; the line into the capital is the stuck step.
- Author: Sean
- Tags: #market-korea, Markets

*Most AI data centres that want to plug into the grid around Seoul are being told to wait. KEPCO's first technical review of data centre power requests found that 279 of 522 in the capital area could not be supplied on today's network. On 26 October the energy minister said AI data centre demand has turned out smaller than planned, and that only demand that is real will go into the next power plan. While the queue waits, the grid owner and the sites next to power plants get paid first. The stuck step is the line into the capital.*

**KOREA · AI DATA CENTERS** · Audit 26 Oct · seminar 28 Oct · bill 29 Oct 2026 · Next update: the AI data centre grid code, due within 2026  
**Affects:** [AI Data Centers](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/) · [Hyperscalers](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/hyperscalers/) · [Neoclouds](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/neoclouds/) — Markets: [Korea](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/) · [Taiwan](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/taiwan/) · [Malaysia](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/malaysia/) · [Australia](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/)

**In short:** From August 2024 to March 2026, KEPCO's first technical review judged 279 of 522 data centre power requests in the Seoul capital area unable to be supplied, 53.4%, against 27 of 214 elsewhere. On 26 October Minister Kim Sung-hwan said AI data centre demand is smaller than thought and the 12th power plan will start from confirmed demand. On 28 October a KEPCO planner said only a few applicants have actually connected, and proposed a deposit to join the grid. On 29 October a bill was filed to widen grid impact checks from 10 MW to 5 MW or less. The grid code is due within 2026\. Stuck step: the line into the capital. Map of who gets paid — not a buy list.

Education only, not advice to buy or sell any security. Figures are as published by the ministry or the company, or as reported from KEPCO, the National Assembly and industry events, unless labelled as our arithmetic.

### The numbers that matter this week

Capital-area requests, no supply

279 of 522

KEPCO first review · Aug 2024 to Mar 2026 · 53.4%

Reported

Outside the capital, no supply

27 of 214

Same review · 12.6%

Reported

AI data centre target for 2035

18.4 GW

8.4 GW of it by 2029 · minister now trimming

Policy

Average build time, 345 kV line

13 years

70% of 75 lines due by 2030 not started

Reported

Basic charge floor

30%

of contracted power, even if the hall is half empty

Reported

The line into the capital

The bind

Plants are outside Seoul; the demand is inside

Stuck step

Figures from KEPCO data as reported by Digital Times, the 26 October audit as reported by Seoul Economic Daily and Newspim, and the 28 October seminar as reported by the Korea Economic Daily. Status chips are Second Order’s read.

**On this page:** [Why it matters](#why-it-matters) · [What changed](#what-changed) · [The queue](#the-queue) · [The forecast](#the-forecast) · [The rules](#the-rules) · [The projects](#the-projects) · [Elsewhere](#elsewhere) · [Our math](#our-math) · [Who gets paid](#money-goes) · [What is stuck?](#still-stuck) · [Dates next](#dates) · [What would change this](#change-view) · [FAQ](#faq)

## Why does Korea's grid queue matter for AI data centres?

Because Korea has said it wants to be one of the big AI data centre builders of the next decade, and the grid is telling it how fast that can really happen. The government's three mega projects include 18.4 GW of AI data centre capacity by 2035, with SK, GS and Naver building 8.4 GW of it by 2029\. Those are big numbers for a country whose whole grid took about 60 years to reach roughly 130 GW, as one speaker put it at a seminar on 28 October.

The problem is where the demand sits. Much of Korea's power is made on the east coast and in the south-west. Most of its data centres are in and around Seoul. An Energy Economics Institute count put 60.4% of the country's 165 data centres in the capital area in 2024, and 75.3% of the privately run ones. Moving power from the coast to the capital needs long, high-voltage lines, and those lines are slow to build.

This week three things landed in four days. The minister trimmed the AI forecast, KEPCO's own planner said few applicants actually get connected, and lawmakers filed a bill to put smaller data centres through grid checks too. Together they say the same thing: in Korea, an AI data centre is a grid project first and a property project second.

This piece is distinct from our recent Korea coverage. Our [14 October Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-pohang-ai-data-centre-financing-october-2026/) followed the financing of one Pohang AI data centre and the cut of Gangneung from 1 GW to 400 MW. Our [19 October Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-power-gear-us-data-centre-lta-october-2026/) covered Korean transformer and cable makers selling into US data centres, and our [24 October Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-chip-fab-fast-track-power-lines-october-2026/) followed fast-track power lines for chip fabs. This one is about the national queue and who gets paid while it waits. For what makes an AI hall different, see [what an AI data center is](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/what-is-an-ai-data-center/), and for why sites follow the grid, [where AI data centers are located](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/where-are-ai-data-centers-located/).

1 · The grid owner

**Who:** KEPCO, through charges on contracted power  
**Paid:** Basic charge floor at 30% of contract · a deposit to join the grid proposed

Paid first

2 · Sites beside power

**Who:** Plants with land and spare output next door  
**Paid:** SK Multi Utility's 300 MW gas plant beside SK and AWS in Ulsan

Paid early

3 · Grid gear

**Who:** Lines, cables, transformers, substations  
**Paid:** 30 GW or more of new transmission called for within ten years

Paid as built

4 · The line into the capital

**Who:** 345 kV lines and substations around Seoul  
**Paid:** About 13 years to build · most 2030 lines not started

Stuck step

## What changed between August and 29 October?

Read in order, the documents move Korea from a growth plan to a grid reckoning.

- **August — the forecast goes up.** The ministry re-estimated demand for the 12th Basic Plan for electricity and raised AI data centre peak demand in 2040 from 4 GW to 11.9 GW, an increase of 7.9 GW, about four months after its first AI-driven estimate in April.
- **27 August — the grid code work starts.** Vice Minister Lee Ho-hyun chaired the first meeting of an AI data centre research group with KEPCO, the power exchange, industry and academics. The ministry said AI data centres swing by megawatts within a thousandth of a second and need gigawatts in total, and that it aims to set an AI data centre grid code within 2026\. The research runs from August to November.
- **1 and 2 October — projects resize.** Donghae granted a building permit for its first 100 MW data centre on 1 October. On 2 October Gangwon Province and Gangneung confirmed a site for a 400 MW first phase, down from SK's original 1 GW plan, scaled to the substation capacity available.
- **22 October — one owner breaks ground.** kt cloud said it is starting a 50 MW AI data centre that it will own, in Ansan near Seoul, with completion targeted for 2029.
- **26 October — the audit.** At the National Assembly, the minister said AI data centre demand is smaller than thought and the 12th plan will reflect what is confirmed. A lawmaker asked for fixes to the basic charge and for the grid code to be made clear.
- **28 October — the seminar.** At an event hosted by the presidential National Economic Advisory Council and Seoul National University, speakers said 345 kV lines take 13 years on average and most lines due by 2030 have not started. KEPCO's grid planning head said only a few applicants have actually connected.
- **29 October — the bill.** A bill was filed to let the grid impact assessment cover facilities using 5 MW or less, down from the 10 MW threshold in today's decree.

None of these is a single decision that stops a project. Together they change the order of things. The question is no longer how many AI data centres Korea wants. It is how many the grid can take, where, and on what terms.

## How long is the queue for power?

![Chart of KEPCO's first technical review of data centre power requests, August 2024 to March 2026: 279 of 522 in the Seoul capital area judged unable to supply, against 27 of 214 elsewhere](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/korea-ai-data-centre-grid-queue-october-2026-print.png)

The queue into the capital. · Education only.

The clearest number comes from KEPCO's own review, as provided to Digital Times. Between August 2024 and March 2026, KEPCO ran a first technical review on 522 data centre power requests in the capital area. It judged 279 of them, 53.4%, as unable to be supplied on the current network. Outside the capital area, 27 of 214 got the same answer, 12.6%. The gap between the two is 40.8 percentage points.

This is a first-stage test, not a final refusal. A 'no supply' result means the network as it stands cannot carry the load safely. KEPCO's main reason is the lack of headroom if something fails. On a normal day a line may cope, but if one line trips, the others must pick up its load, and on many routes into the capital there is no room left for that. A KEPCO official put it simply: nationally there is enough generation, but the capital area produces too little of its own power, so it needs more transmission and substations.

The other half of the queue is how few reach the finish. A data firm, AI-DC Korea, counts 522 grid impact applications totalling 3.4 GW as of the first quarter, with only 10 projects, about 1 GW, actually reaching power supply, as reported by Seoul Economic Daily. KEPCO's grid planning head, Kwak Eun-seop, told the 28 October seminar that only a small number of AI data centre applicants have actually been connected.

Part of the queue is not real demand. An industry source quoted by Seoul Economic Daily said many developers lock in land and power first and expand later, and that some apply in the hope of lifting land values. That is why KEPCO now wants a grid participation deposit from data centre applicants, and why the ministry is checking each project's progress before it sizes the next power plan.

## Why is the forecast being trimmed?

![Chart of how Korea's AI data centre power numbers moved: 2040 demand estimate raised from 4 GW to 11.9 GW in August, an 18.4 GW build target for 2035 and 8.4 GW by 2029, before the minister said real demand is smaller](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/korea-ai-data-centre-grid-queue-october-2026-shift.png)

The forecast went up, then the minister trimmed it. · Education only.

Because the plans ran ahead of the contracts. In April, the government published its first electricity demand outlook that reflected corporate AI investment. After the mega projects were announced, the August re-estimate nearly tripled AI data centre peak demand in 2040, from 4 GW to 11.9 GW. On 26 October, Minister Kim Sung-hwan told the National Assembly that when the government announced the mega projects it tried to reflect companies' demand as fully as possible, but in practice not much of that demand has been confirmed.

He said the 12th Basic Plan would avoid either over- or under-estimating AI data centre demand, and would not include vague demand. A ministry official said the size of any cut has not been decided and the ministry is looking at each project closely. The minister expects the plan to reach the National Assembly at the end of December or early January, after the public deliberation on nuclear power wraps up around mid-December.

As reported, the projects split into two groups. GS and Naver have fairly concrete plans: GS on a finished industrial site in Donghae, with a 1.2 GW first phase targeted for 2028 and a second 1.2 GW phase for 2029, and Naver with Nvidia in Sejong, 100 MW in 2027 and 200 MW in 2028, rising later to 1 GW. SK's plan is less clear: apart from the roughly 100 MW site it is building with AWS in Ulsan, Seoul Economic Daily reports no news yet on the 4 GW it was to build across four regions.

The trim matters for money because the power plan decides what KEPCO builds. If AI demand in the plan goes down, fewer new lines and plants get scheduled for it. That is cheaper for the grid, but it also means projects that are real but not yet confirmed may find no line waiting for them later.

## What rules are coming for data centres on the grid?

Four pieces are moving at once.

The first is the grid code. The ministry's 27 August release says the code will set the minimum technical requirements an AI data centre must meet to draw power safely, reflecting Korea's own grid. Its reasoning is that AI training and inference swing by megawatts within a millisecond, so a big site can shake voltage and frequency for its neighbours. The research group is also looking at how data centres' own batteries and UPS systems could help steady the grid without weakening their backup role. At the 28 October seminar, Seoul National University's Lee Gyu-seob pointed to a 2024 fault in Virginia when about 1.5 GW of data centres switched to backup at once and dropped off the grid, and called for a rule requiring data centres to ride through faults.

The second is the bill for unused capacity. As reported by Newspim from the 26 October audit, customers billed on peak demand pay a basic charge with a floor of 30% of contracted power. An AI data centre that books a large contract and fills its halls over several years can pay that floor before its servers arrive. Lawmaker Eo Gi-gu asked the ministry and KEPCO to adjust the basic charge to match a data centre's phased start-up and KEPCO's own investment timetable, and to make the grid code's requirements, scope and start date clear so companies can plan.

The third is a deposit. KEPCO's Kwak Eun-seop said the system needs a grid participation deposit from AI data centre developers, and a route for local governments to attract a real customer and then apply for a substation. The aim is to sort serious projects from speculative ones before scarce grid capacity is promised.

The fourth is a wider net. The 29 October bill, filed by lawmaker Chae Hyun-il with nine others as bill number 2222261, would let the decree set the grid impact assessment threshold at 5 MW or less, against 10 MW now. More sites would be checked for their effect on the local grid before they connect, which helps the grid plan but adds cost and time for smaller operators.

Put together, the direction is clear: data centres in Korea will pay more, earlier and with more paperwork for a place on the grid. For how big buyers secure power elsewhere, see [how hyperscalers buy power](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/hyperscalers/how-do-hyperscalers-buy-power/).

## Which projects are still moving?

![Chart of Korean AI data centre projects by size: GS Donghae first phase 1.2 GW target, Gangneung 400 MW of a 1 GW plan, Naver Sejong 200 MW by 2028, SK and AWS Ulsan 103 MW IT, Donghae first 100 MW permit, kt cloud Ansan 50 MW](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/korea-ai-data-centre-grid-queue-october-2026-ladder.png)

The projects that did move. · Education only.

The ones that moved have something in common: they went to the power, or they cut their size to fit it.

In Ulsan, SK and AWS are building an AI data centre with 103 MW of IT capacity in the Mipo national industrial complex, next to SK Multi Utility's 300 MW gas-fired combined heat and power plant. An SK Telecom manager told Digital Times that being close to a power plant was an advantage in talks with big tech. Including cooling, the total intake could reach 130 MW to 140 MW, though that is not final.

In Donghae, on the east coast where the power plants are, the city granted a building permit for a first 100 MW data centre on 1 October and is targeting groundbreaking in December. The city checked power and water supply on 20 October with the vice chair of the National AI Strategy Committee, who visited GS Donghae Power and LS Cable's Donghae plant, which makes high-voltage direct current cable.

In Gangneung, the province and city settled on the Okgye industrial complex for a 400 MW first phase, after concluding that SK's original 1 GW plan would need grid building that takes time. KEPCO agreed to cooperate, and the governor said more capacity could be discussed once the grid is in place.

Near Seoul, kt cloud started a 50 MW AI data centre that it will own in Ansan, with about 36,878 square metres of floor space, two floors underground and nine above, all server rooms ready for liquid cooling and floors built for heavy next-generation GPU racks. It targets completion in 2029, and the company calls it part of a plan to supply 1 GW of AI data centre capacity by 2031\. At 50 MW, it is a capital-area project small enough to fit the grid that exists.

For how long these halls take from permit to power, see [how long it takes to build an AI data center](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-an-ai-data-center/), and for who does the building, [who builds AI data centers](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/who-builds-ai-data-centers/).

## How does this compare with Taiwan, Malaysia and Australia?

Korea is not alone. In Taiwan, our [Taipower Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/taiwan/taiwan-taipower-ai-data-centre-grid-october-2026/) followed the same split between where AI halls want to be and where the power is. In Malaysia, our [28 October Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/malaysia/malaysia-johor-data-centre-grid-connection-october-2026/) covered TNB's pledge to connect approved data centres within a year while substations in Johor take far longer to build, and our [17 October Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/malaysia/malaysia-data-centre-unused-power-charge-october-2026/) followed the charge for booked but unused power, close to Korea's 30% basic charge floor. In Australia, our [Kurri Kurri piece](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-airtrunk-kurri-kurri-data-centre-grid-fee-october-2026/) showed New South Wales making data centres pay for the wires, and in the US our [Texas Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/us/us-texas-large-load-rule-october-2026/) covered a large-load rule with the same aim.

The pattern is the same everywhere. Land and demand are not the scarce things. A grid connection with a known date and a known price is. Korea's version is sharper because the gap between the coast, where the power is, and the capital, where the demand is, has to be crossed by lines that take more than a decade.

## Our math: what do the numbers say?

The queue, as reported

Capital-area requests reviewed (Aug 2024–Mar 2026)522

Judged unable to supply279 (53.4%)

Outside the capital: reviewed / unable214 / 27 (12.6%)

KEPCO transmission projects delayed20 of 54

Lines due by 2030 not yet started70% of 75

Average build time, 345 kV line13 years

The plan, as reported

AI data centre target, 203518.4 GW

Of which by 2029 (SK, GS, Naver)8.4 GW

2040 AI data centre peak, April estimate4 GW

2040 AI data centre peak, August estimate11.9 GW

Basic charge floor30% of contracted power

Grid impact threshold: now / proposed10 MW / 5 MW or less

- Across both regions, 306 of 736 reviewed requests, about 41.6%, were judged unable to supply (our arithmetic).
- In the capital area, 243 of 522 requests passed the first review, about 46.6% (our arithmetic).
- The 2040 AI data centre estimate rose about 3 times, from 4 GW to 11.9 GW (our arithmetic).
- The 2029 slice, 8.4 GW, is about 46% of the 18.4 GW 2035 target (our arithmetic).
- 70% of 75 lines is about 52 to 53 lines due by 2030 that have not broken ground (our arithmetic).
- 20 of 54 delayed transmission projects is about 37% (our arithmetic).
- Grid pace: about 130 GW in 60 years is roughly 2.2 GW a year; 30 GW in ten years would be 3 GW a year, about 40% faster (our arithmetic).
- Basic charge floor, illustration: a 100 MW contract carries a 30 MW floor, six times the bill basis of a hall drawing 5 MW in its first months (our arithmetic; actual charges depend on the tariff and contract).
- Gangneung's first phase, 400 MW, is 40% of the original 1 GW plan (our arithmetic).
- Ulsan's 103 MW of IT is about a third of the 300 MW plant next door; 130 MW to 140 MW total intake would be about 43% to 47% (our arithmetic).
- By AI-DC Korea's count as reported, 1 GW reaching supply out of 3.4 GW applied is about 29% of the capacity, and 10 of 522 applications, about 2% (our arithmetic).

## Who gets paid first?

![Infographic: who gets paid while Korea's AI data centres queue for the grid, from KEPCO's basic charges to plant-side sites and grid gear makers, and why the line into the capital is the stuck step](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/korea-ai-data-centre-grid-queue-october-2026-infographic.png)

Who gets paid / stuck step in Korea's AI data centre queue. · Education only.

First, the grid owner. KEPCO collects basic charges on contracted power, with a floor of 30% of the contract, from the day a customer is connected, whether or not the halls are full. If the deposit its planners propose is adopted, it would also hold money from applicants before any line is promised. This is cash that flows to the grid owner before an AI customer pays rent. It does not make KEPCO's job easy: the minister said on 26 October that its bond issuance limit is unlikely to be cut back next year as planned, because its profits have shrunk.

Second, sites beside the power. A data centre built next to a plant needs less of the long-distance grid. In Ulsan, SK Multi Utility's 300 MW gas plant sits beside the 103 MW SK and AWS site. In Donghae, officials checking GS's site also visited GS Donghae Power, and reports say its power is likely to come from nearby nuclear plants or coal plants running below capacity because of grid limits. Plant owners with spare output and land nearby are being paid for location.

Third, the makers of grid gear. If Korea really needs 30 GW or more of new transmission within ten years, as COR Energy Insight's Kwon Hyo-jae told the seminar, then cable, transformer and substation makers are paid as it is built. Our [19 October Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-power-gear-us-data-centre-lta-october-2026/) followed Korean power gear makers already selling into US data centres; home demand would come on top, on the grid's timetable.

Fourth, the builders of halls that fit. Sites that sized themselves to the grid that exists, such as kt cloud's 50 MW in Ansan and Gangneung's 400 MW first phase, put contractors and equipment suppliers to work now rather than after a 13-year line.

Fifth, the landlord and its tenant — last. Rent on an AI hall usually starts when the power does, as our [data center lease explainer](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/data-center-lease-explained/) sets out. Global landlords like [Equinix](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/what-does-equinix-do/) and [Digital Realty](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/what-does-digital-realty-do/) face the same order everywhere: capital out first, rent once the grid delivers. For what a hall costs before that day, see [how much it costs to build an AI data center](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/how-much-does-it-cost-to-build-an-ai-data-center/).

One-line rule: in Korea, the grid owner and the plant-side sites are paid before the AI tenant. The stuck step is the line that would let a capital-area hall join them.

## So what is the stuck step?

The line into the capital: the 345 kV lines and substations that carry power from the coast to the Seoul area. Not land: developers are applying in their hundreds. Not money: GS, Naver, SK and kt cloud have committed capital. Not even generation: KEPCO says there is enough of it nationally. Three things keep the line stuck:

- **Build time.** A 345 kV line takes about 13 years on average, and 70% of the 75 lines due by 2030 have not started, as reported from the seminar. Digital Times reports 20 of KEPCO's 54 major transmission projects delayed, with local opposition the main cause.
- **Funding.** KEPCO carries the build on a stretched balance sheet. Speakers at the seminar said grid funding, not just plans, must change, and suggested two or three national data centre campuses where power and lines are concentrated.
- **Rules not yet written.** The grid code, the basic charge fix, the deposit and the lower assessment threshold are all proposals or work in progress. A developer cannot price its connection until they are settled.

So-what: in Korea, the scarce thing for an AI data centre is not a site or a customer. It is a place on a line that may not exist until the late 2030s. Projects that go to the power, or shrink to fit the grid, move now. Projects that need a new line into Seoul wait, and pay basic charges or deposits while they do.

## Which dates test this read next?

![Calendar of dates that test the Korea AI data centre grid read: the November end of the grid code study, the code due within 2026, Donghae's December groundbreaking, the 12th power plan around year-end, and 2029 targets](https://storage.ghost.io/c/cd/10/cd10e222-131f-4ba4-b4a9-ca4214e8c12d/content/images/2026/10/korea-ai-data-centre-grid-queue-october-2026-calendar.png)

Dates that test the read. · Education only.

- November 2026 — the AI data centre research group's planned study period ends. The test: whether its connection strategy uses data centres' own batteries and UPS, or asks for new gear.
- By end-2026 — the AI data centre grid code, which the ministry aims to set within the year. The test: whether it applies to projects already designed or under way.
- December 2026 — Donghae's first 100 MW data centre targets groundbreaking. The test: whether power and water are lined up by then.
- Late December 2026 or early January 2027 — the 12th Basic Plan for electricity goes to the National Assembly. The test: how far the 11.9 GW AI data centre estimate is cut, and which lines it schedules.
- 2028 to 2029 — GS Donghae's 1.2 GW phases and the 8.4 GW mega project target. The test: how much of it has a signed connection.
- 2029 — kt cloud's Ansan 50 MW completion target. The test: whether a capital-area hall sized to the grid lands on time.

## What would change this view?

- KEPCO speeds up major lines into the capital, or a 'grid czar' style fast track cuts build times sharply — the line would bind less.
- The 12th plan keeps AI data centre demand near 11.9 GW and funds the lines for it — the forecast trim would matter less.
- The grid code applies only to new projects and lets existing batteries count — the rules would cost less than feared.
- Big announced projects lose their tenants — demand, not the grid, would become the question.

## Practical takeaways

- KEPCO's first review: 279 of 522 capital-area data centre requests unable to be supplied (53.4%), 27 of 214 elsewhere
- 26 Oct: the minister said AI data centre demand is smaller than thought; the 12th plan will use confirmed demand
- The August estimate had raised 2040 AI data centre peak demand from 4 GW to 11.9 GW; the 2035 target is 18.4 GW
- A 345 kV line takes about 13 years; 70% of 75 lines due by 2030 have not started
- Rules coming: grid code within 2026, a fix to the 30% basic charge floor, a possible deposit, checks from 5 MW
- Projects beside power or sized to the grid move first: Ulsan 103 MW, Donghae 100 MW, Gangneung 400 MW, Ansan 50 MW
- The grid owner and plant-side sites are paid first; the tenant last. Stuck step: the line into the capital

## FAQ

**Why are AI data centres in Korea waiting for the grid?**  
Because the grid into the Seoul area is full before the halls are. KEPCO's first technical review of data centre power requests from August 2024 to March 2026 judged that 279 of 522 requests in the capital area could not be supplied on the current network, 53.4%, against 27 of 214 elsewhere, 12.6%. KEPCO's main reason is a lack of spare capacity if one line fails. New 345 kV lines take about 13 years to build on average.

**Does 'supply not possible' mean the project is cancelled?**  
No. It is the result of a first technical review, not a refusal of the project. It means the current network cannot carry that load safely. The developer can wait for new lines, move the site, cut the size, or phase the build, as Gangneung did when it started with 400 MW of a 1 GW plan.

**What did the minister say on 26 October 2026?**  
At the National Assembly audit, Climate, Energy and Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan said AI data centre demand has turned out smaller than first thought and that the 12th Basic Plan for electricity would include needed demand without over- or under-estimating it, starting from confirmed demand. In August the ministry had raised the 2040 AI data centre peak demand estimate from 4 GW to 11.9 GW. The plan is due to go to the Assembly around late December or early January.

**What is the AI data centre grid code?**  
A set of minimum technical rules that a big data centre must meet to connect, for example riding through a grid fault instead of dropping off all at once. The ministry started a research group on 27 August and said it aims to set the code within 2026\. It also wants to use data centres' own batteries and UPS systems to help steady the grid. Lawmakers have asked whether it will apply to projects already being built.

**Who gets paid first while the queue waits?**  
On our map: KEPCO, through basic charges on contracted power, which have a floor of 30% of the contract; owners of power plants with data centre sites beside them, such as the 300 MW gas plant next to SK and AWS in Ulsan; and the makers of the lines, cables and substations the grid has to build. Landlords and AI clouds are paid last, when the power arrives.

**Is this investment advice?**  
No. Education only. It maps who gets paid and which step is stuck. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and we leave out share prices, valuations, broker ratings and price targets on purpose.

## Keep reading on the map

- [Korea Markets hub](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/) — country page
- [Pohang AI data centre financing](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-pohang-ai-data-centre-financing-october-2026/) · [Korean power gear and US data centres](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-power-gear-us-data-centre-lta-october-2026/) · [Fast-track power lines for chip fabs](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-chip-fab-fast-track-power-lines-october-2026/)
- [SK hynix fab power Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/korea/korea-sk-hynix-fab-power-october-2026/) · [Taipower and AI data centres](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/taiwan/taiwan-taipower-ai-data-centre-grid-october-2026/)
- [Johor grid connection Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/malaysia/malaysia-johor-data-centre-grid-connection-october-2026/) · [Kurri Kurri and NSW wire rules](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/australia/australia-airtrunk-kurri-kurri-data-centre-grid-fee-october-2026/) · [Texas large-load rule Pulse](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/us/us-texas-large-load-rule-october-2026/)
- [AI Data Centers on the stack](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/) · [What Equinix does](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/what-does-equinix-do/) · [What Digital Realty does](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/ai-data-centers/what-does-digital-realty-do/)
- [Where AI data centers are located](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/where-are-ai-data-centers-located/) · [How long it takes to build an AI data center](https://www.sotkn.com/explained/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-an-ai-data-center/) · [How hyperscalers buy power](https://www.sotkn.com/stack/hyperscalers/how-do-hyperscalers-buy-power/)
- [All Markets doors](https://www.sotkn.com/markets/) — Taiwan, Korea, US, China, Singapore, Australia, Malaysia

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**Members’ Analysis (teaser):** When the stuck step moves, where does cash stick? The free line: whoever clears the bind is paid before whoever waits on it. [Read the Analysis →](https://www.sotkn.com/analysis/where-does-the-stuck-step-move/)

**How we check this.** The grid code plan comes from the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment's press release of 27 August 2026\. The technical review counts (522, 279, 214, 27) are KEPCO figures as provided to and reported by Digital Times; the minister's remarks, the 18.4 GW target and the 4 GW to 11.9 GW demand revision are as reported by Seoul Economic Daily from the 26 October audit; the 30% basic charge floor is as reported by Newspim from the same audit; the 13-year build time, the 75 lines and KEPCO's deposit idea are as reported by the Korea Economic Daily from the 28 October seminar; the bill is as reported by Energy Daily. Project facts come from kt cloud's own release, Yonhap and The Herald Business. Anything we worked out ourselves is labelled “our arithmetic”. Share prices, valuations, broker ratings and price targets are left out on purpose. The references we used are listed at the end. [Our editorial standards →](https://www.sotkn.com/editorial-standards/)

Not investment advice. Do your own research.

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### References

1. Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment (Korea), press release on the first AI data centre research group and grid code, 27 Aug 2026\. [korea.kr](https://www.korea.kr/briefing/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156775756&ref=sotkn.com) — grid code to be set within 2026, MW-scale swings per millisecond, ESS and UPS, research period August to November.
2. Digital Times, 'AI transition' blocked by the grid (KEPCO technical review data), Oct 2026\. [dt.co.kr](https://www.dt.co.kr/article/12091114?ref=sotkn.com) — 279 of 522 capital-area reviews and 27 of 214 elsewhere judged unable to supply, 20 of 54 transmission projects delayed, SK and AWS Ulsan 103 MW next to a 300 MW gas plant.
3. Seoul Economic Daily, Minister Kim Sung-hwan on AI data centre demand, 26 Oct 2026\. [sedaily.com](https://www.sedaily.com/article/20106385?ref=sotkn.com) — 18.4 GW target for 2035, 8.4 GW by 2029, 2040 AI data centre demand raised from 4 GW to 11.9 GW in August, confirmed demand only in the 12th plan, GS and Naver plans.
4. Newspim, National Assembly audit on AI data centre tariffs and grid code, 26 Oct 2026\. [newspim.com](https://www.newspim.com/news/view/20261026000225?ref=sotkn.com) — basic charge floor of 30% of contracted power, grid code promised within the year.
5. Korea Economic Daily (Hankyung), seminar on grid bottlenecks, 28 Oct 2026\. [hankyung.com](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026102813981?ref=sotkn.com) — 345 kV lines take 13 years on average, 70% of 75 lines due by 2030 not started, KEPCO's call for a grid participation deposit.
6. Energy Daily, bill to lower the grid impact assessment threshold, 29 Oct 2026\. [energydaily.co.kr](https://www.energydaily.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=204522&ref=sotkn.com) — bill no. 2222261, threshold from 10 MW to 5 MW or less.
7. kt cloud, press release on the Ansan AI data centre, 22 Oct 2026\. [ktcloud.com](https://www.ktcloud.com/media/press/20261022110459247?lan=eng&ref=sotkn.com) — 50 MW total receiving capacity, 36,878 square metres, completion targeted for 2029, 1 GW plan by 2031.
8. Yonhap News Agency, Donghae checks power and water before AI data centre groundbreaking, 20 Oct 2026\. [yna.co.kr](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20261020122000062?ref=sotkn.com) — building permit for the first 100 MW data centre on 1 October, December start targeted.
9. The Herald Business, Okgye industrial complex confirmed for Gangneung's 400 MW AI data center, 2 Oct 2026\. [biz.heraldcorp.com](https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10892198?ref=sotkn.com) — first phase of 400 MW against an original 1 GW plan, scaled to substation capacity.