Nebius signs an LOI for Volt's Rotterdam AI campus, not a lease
Nebius is Volt's first Rotterdam tenant — on a letter of intent. No megawatts, term or prepay were published. The definitive offtake still has to follow.
WIRE · NEOCLOUDS · NETHERLANDS · Data as at 12 Oct 2026
Nebius has put its name on Volt's planned Rotterdam campus, and that is as far as the cash goes. On 12 October 2026 Volt founder Han de Groot said the Amsterdam-listed GPU cloud had signed a letter of intent for a substantial share of the compute at the Dutch "AI Gigafactory" in the Port of Rotterdam. The definitive offtake still has to follow. Volt's project page still lists the campus at up to 800 MWe with Eneco as energy partner; same-day coverage describes 600 MW across six buildings. No megawatts, term or price for Nebius were published. Last week Nebius prepaid a binding 50 MW hall at AIB. Here the tenant is a letter. Lenders may now take the call. They cannot yet take the contract.
What happened
Volt wants an industrial AI campus on the Rotterdam Maasvlakte, next to where North Sea wind comes ashore. De Groot unveiled it on 14 April 2026. The company page still sells "up to 800 MWe", Eneco as energy partner, and a 31 March 2026 ministry line: gigafactories the market pays for in full. Twelve October is the tenant, not the hall.
| Figure | Source, 12 Oct | |
|---|---|---|
| Tenant | LOI. First offtaker. Substantial share. Definitive offtake still to follow | De Groot, LinkedIn |
| Campus, Volt page | Up to 800 MWe. Eneco | Volt |
| Campus, coverage | 600 MW, six buildings. First phase two 100 MW halls | DCD / w.media |
| First phase, reported | About 200 MW, €7bn (estimate, not contract value) | FD via NL Times; w.media citing Volt |
| Founder cash | €2.4bn physical first phase; €7.2bn full campus excluding chips; 100,000+ chips | De Groot, LinkedIn |
| Clock, reported | Build hoped 2028. Permits this year. Walk-away if delayed | ANP; FD via NL Times |
Three cash numbers are in circulation, and they do not describe the same object. FD's €7 billion is reported as a 200 MW first phase, buildings plus chips. De Groot splits €2.4 billion of physical work in the first phase from €7.2 billion for the whole campus excluding chips. Volt's live page never retired 800 MWe. BNR, from the FD, said the LOI was a significant share of 600 MW — still not a Nebius megawatt number. A secondhand Telegraaf figure that Nebius will take "up to 200 MW" is not on either company's page, so we drop it. Volozh, quoted in AD: details still to be worked out. DCD, quoting the companies: computer-equipment setup later.
Why cash cares
A GPU cloud earns when customers run hours on live accelerators. Power-ready European halls are scarce, so neoclouds sign early and try to turn that signature into someone else's money. That cash step is soft here.
On 30 September AIB Data Centers signed a binding 12-year contract with Nebius for 50 MW at CLT1 in South Carolina. On an 8 October investor call AIB put the budget at $800 million and said Nebius prepayments cover the equity slice, with about $560 million of construction debt still to raise. Rent starts at handover, around late 2027. That is cash in escrow against a named hall.
Rotterdam is the other instrument. An LOI tells a developer it has a counterparty to take to banks. It does not, on the 12 October figures, move escrow or start a take-or-pay clock. De Groot told FD, as reported by NL Times, that "building is only possible if you have a customer that you can contact." That is a fundraising sentence, not a rent sentence.
Our arithmetic, not a company figure, on the published envelopes:
- FD's reported €7 billion for about 200 MW is about €35 million per megawatt, all-in.
- De Groot's €7.2 billion for a 600 MW campus excluding chips is about €12 million per megawatt of physical campus.
- The same €7.2 billion against the 800 MWe still on Volt's page is about €9 million per megawatt, still excluding chips.
Those three results are not a range around one truth. They are three different objects. De Groot's post puts more than 100,000 chips on site and a five-year replacement cycle — chip capex recurs. Until the offtake says who buys the accelerators, the €7 billion headline is not a cash map. The Dutch state is not the funder. The LOI has to do the work a grant would have done.
What a letter of intent actually buys
Three pieces of paper get confused in this layer. They do not pay the same people.
A letter of intent is a named intention. It can include a walk-away. It is not, by itself, a lease, a prepayment or collateral. De Groot is explicit: the definitive offtake still has to follow. DCD, quoting the companies, says the computer-equipment setup is for later.
A lease assigns space and intended megawatts. Rent usually starts at handover, not at signing. The IEA puts the building at one to three years and new grid connections at five to ten in many places. Rotterdam's pitch is the wind landing and the high-voltage grid. That is a design claim, not a permit.
A prepayment is cash in before performance. Nebius's 12 August 2026 Q2 letter said 70% of deals included prepayments covering 50–60% of associated capex. Deferred revenue at 30 June 2026 was $6.0 billion — a liability until the hall is accepted. Rotterdam has not printed a prepay.
AIB is a prepay against a lease. Rotterdam is an LOI against a campus that still needs permits, chips and a financing close. Same tenant. Different clock.
The second-order read
Who gets paid. Nobody yet, on this paper. If the LOI becomes a financed lease, the first cash leaves to builders, then to whoever sells the accelerators. Eneco is the named energy partner — a power-path role, not a 12 October invoice.
Who pays. Nebius, if and when a definitive offtake is signed. Until then it pays time, not cash: it has reserved a European hall that does not exist. Volt pays the development burn while it converts an LOI into a credit file.
Who waits. Lenders, for a contract they can underwrite. GPU hours, for a campus hoped for 2028. Upstream, whoever would sell the first 100,000-plus accelerators — an order only when the hall date and the chip generation stop floating.
Stuck step. Permits and the definitive offtake, in that order. De Groot: the first customer is there; the clock ticks for the permits. Reported coverage adds that Nebius can leave if delayed. If that clause is real, delay risk sits with Volt. AIB named 50 MW, 12 years and a prepay. Rotterdam names a tenant and a letter.
Two cautions
The cash totals disagree, and they come from different objects. Do not add FD's €7 billion to de Groot's €7.2 billion, and do not treat 600 MW and 800 MWe as a rounding error.
Neither company has published megawatts, term, price or a prepayment. Walk-away-on-delay is reported, not filed. Construction in 2028 is a hope de Groot gave ANP, not a groundbreaking.
What would change the view
- A signed offtake that names megawatts, term, who buys the chips, and whether cash arrives before handover.
- A named lender for the first phase, with a debt number — not another envelope.
- Permits slipping into 2027 while the reported walk-away remains in force.
- Volt updating the live 800 MWe page so the campus size stops moving between documents.
What to watch
- Permits before 31 December 2026 — de Groot's reported target, via FD.
- The definitive offtake: megawatts, term, chip buyer, prepay or not.
- A financing close on the first two halls, with a named bank.
- Nebius's next quarterly letter: whether Rotterdam appears as backlog, deferred revenue, or not at all.
- Construction start, hoped for 2028 per ANP.
Read: Neoclouds · Who finances GPU clusters
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Sources: Han de Groot, LinkedIn, 12 Oct 2026. Volt Rotterdam page. Volt home. AD, 12 Oct 2026. DCD, 12 Oct 2026. w.media, 12 Oct 2026. NL Times / FD, 12 Oct 2026. BNR, 12 Oct 2026. ANP, 12 Oct 2026. AIB–Nebius Wire, 11 Oct 2026. Not investment advice.
