Analysis — Second Order by TKN

Analysis

Members' Analysis: one question at the stuck step, worked through with the numbers, three scenarios and what would change the view. Free preview, full piece for paid members. Education only, not investment advice.

Get the Wire

Analysis

What Does CXMT's Price Assume About the Unfinished-Bay Stuck Step?

CXMT last printed CNY 41.72, about RMB 2.832 trillion. It already booked RMB 118.714 billion of DRAM at an 89.53% gross margin. What does the price assume while the next bay is still unfinished?

THE ENGINE BINDS - Booked into 2028. A hall of large diesel generator engines graded navy and teal, with the foreground engine lit amber marking the bind.

Analysis

If Backup Generators Stay Booked Into 2028, Where Does Cash Stick?

Caterpillar takes large engine orders into 2029, Cummins delivers new 95-litre sets in late 2028 and Generac's data centre backlog nearly tripled. The engine, not the box, is the stuck step. Who gets paid, who waits, three scenarios.

THE LINE BINDS - Paid for, not yet shipped. A row of power cabinets down a plant-room corridor at night, graded navy and teal, with one cabinet lit amber marking the bind.

Analysis

Vertiv's Customers Prepaid $4.1 Billion. What Does the Price Assume?

Vertiv's customers have paid $4.1 billion for power and cooling gear not yet delivered, and orders doubled. At $232.50 the price needs its factories to keep pace, not the orders. Who gets paid first, three scenarios, arithmetic shown.

Analysis

If New Clean Rooms Stay Empty Into 2028, Where Does Cash Stick?

Samsung printed ₩107.4 trillion of operating profit and holds ₩197.6 trillion of net cash. 2027 HBM is sold out. If new clean rooms stay empty into 2028, where does the cash stick?

Analysis

What Does Microsoft's Price Assume About the GPU-Handover Stuck Step?

Microsoft was $546.39 after hours, about $4.06 trillion. It already recognised $33.165 billion of Azure. What does the price assume about getting paid on Azure while the third-party rack still waits to commence?

Analysis

If More Than Half of 2027–28 Memory Is Already Sold, Where Does Cash Stick?

SK hynix numbered LTAs covering more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and a ₩100 trillion cheque. Who is paid if the sold book, not the cheque, is the stuck step.

Photoreal packaging bay: cyan-lit billed wafer on the left, amber empty CoWoS chamber on the right. Overlay: PAID ON THE WAFER / The package still binds.

Analysis

What Does TSMC's Price Assume About the CoWoS Stuck Step?

TSMC closed at $424.37, about $1.90 trillion. It already recognised $46.72 billion of third-quarter sales. What does the price assume about getting paid on the wafer while the package still binds?

THE TRANSFORMER BINDS - Sold out to 2029. A 750 kV power transformer in a substation at night, graded navy and teal, with its main tank lit amber marking the bind.

Analysis

If Big Transformers Stay Sold Out Into 2029, Where Does Cash Stick?

HD Hyundai Electric says it cannot take some orders because its slots are full. Large power transformers are booked about three years ahead. Who gets paid while the queue runs, who waits, three scenarios, arithmetic shown.

Analysis

If a GPU Licence Lands Before the Bill Is Funded, Where Does Cash Stick?

Firebird numbered a US licence for 45,000 GPUs and about $5 billion for 109 MW in Kazakhstan. No lender, no customer. Who is paid if a GPU licence lands before the bill is funded.

THE VALVE BINDS - Orders outrun the factory. Ultra-high-vacuum chambers graded navy and teal, with one bolted vacuum port lit amber marking the bind.

Analysis

VAT Group's Orders Outrun Its Factory. What Does the Price Assume?

VAT Group booked a record CHF 697 million of vacuum valve orders but shipped CHF 376 million. At CHF 560.20 the price needs its factory ramp to work. Who gets paid first, three scenarios, arithmetic shown.

THE TURBINE BINDS - Booked into 2030. Close-up of gas turbine compressor blades graded navy and teal, with one blade stage lit amber marking the bind.

Analysis

If Gas Turbines Stay Booked Into 2030, Where Does Cash Stick?

GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy hold about 246 GW of gas turbine orders and reservations, paid in cash years before delivery. Who gets paid first, who waits, three scenarios with the arithmetic shown.

THE REBUILD BINDS - Oldest hall, half empty. A stripped multi-storey data centre graded navy and teal, with one gutted floor lit amber marking the bind.

Analysis

Keppel DC REIT Is Emptying Its Oldest Singapore Hall. What Does the Price Assume?

Keppel DC REIT's distribution rose 11.7%, but its oldest Singapore hall is 46% full as it winds down for a possible rebuild in a city that rations power. What the price assumes, who gets paid first, three scenarios with the arithmetic shown.