AI Data Centers — Turbine Slots First, Switch-On Still Binds

Status Tightening as of 12 Oct 2026: turbine slots first. BKV ordered about 1,200 MW of gas power gear with a hyperscaler covering most early payments from September 2028. Nebius prepays AIB's equity for a 50 MW hall. Applied Digital booked $65.8M base rent on live halls. Switch-on still binds.

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AI data center stocks are the listed companies that own, build or lease the powered buildings AI chips run in. They include data center REITs such as Equinix and Digital Realty, AI hosts such as Applied Digital, Asia landlords such as Keppel DC REIT and NEXTDC, and the ETFs that bundle them. This Stack layer tracks who gets paid and which step holds the cash.

Asia doors: Singapore · Australia · Malaysia · US: US door

Status: Tightening · Updated: 2026-10-08

Investor read: Signed isn’t switched on. At 30 June 2026 NEXTDC had 740.1 MW under contract, 287.9 MW built and 175.0 MW billing. Digital Realty ended June with a record $1.9 billion of yearly rent signed but not yet started, and says $635 million of it starts in the second half of 2026. Applied Digital has 1,200 MW contracted, but its newest 300 MW campus is not due to open until August 2027. Landlords book the lease now. The rent starts when the power is on. The stuck step is the switch-on date.

On this page

  • Numbers that matter
  • What AI data centers do / who gets paid
  • Stuck step
  • Data center stocks, REITs and ETFs by role
  • Dates to watch
  • What limits it
  • Cross-links
  • Practical takeaways
  • FAQ
  • How we check
  • Sources

Numbers that matter

PrintFigureSource / date
NEXTDC contracted vs built vs billing740.1 MW contracted · 287.9 MW built · 175.0 MW billing (30 Jun 2026)NEXTDC FY26 results, 27 Aug 2026
NEXTDC forward order book565.1 MW · more than 3.2× billingSame
NEXTDC capex, FY26A$3,397M (guidance was A$2.7–3.0B)Same
Digital Realty backlog (signed, not started)$1.9B yearly rent at 100% share · $1.4B at DLR shareDigital Realty 2Q26, 23 Jul 2026
Digital Realty rent starting 2H26$635M of yearly rent (45% in Q3, 55% in Q4)Digital Realty 2Q26 call, 23 Jul 2026
Digital Realty sign-to-start lag9 months (weighted average, 2Q26 leases)Digital Realty 2Q26, 23 Jul 2026
Digital Realty renewal rents+25.4% cash · +32.0% GAAPSame
Equinix 2Q26 revenue$2.625B, +16% · 134 MW of xScale leases closed (~$120M one-off fees)Equinix, 29 Jul 2026
Equinix 2026 guidanceRevenue $10.205–10.285B · total capex $5–6BSame
Applied Digital contracted capacity1,200 MW IT load · $31B contracted lease revenueApplied Digital, 20 May 2026
Applied Digital Polaris Forge 3300 MW · 15-year take-or-pay · ops from Aug 2027Same
Keppel DC REIT 1H26 DPU5.714 Singapore cents, +11.3% · contracted power capacity ~95% · leverage 34.0%Keppel DC REIT, 23 Jul 2026
Digital Core REIT 1H26 DPU1.80 US cents, flat · occupancy 97.3% · leverage 39.2%Digital Core REIT 1H26 results, Jul 2026
Singapore new capacity (DC-CFA2)200 MW provisionally allocated · 50 MW each to Digital Realty, Equinix, Keppel, STT GDCEDB / IMDA, 21 Aug 2026
AirTrunk Johor platform700+ MW across four campuses · US$2.325B green loan for JHB2AirTrunk, 30 Apr and 29 Jul 2026
Goodman data center power bank6.4 GW across 16 cities · data centres 78% of A$19.7B work in progressGoodman FY26, 20 Aug 2026
Global X DTCR (data center ETF)US$2.08B · 25 holdings · 0.50% fee · top: DLR 12.57%, EQIX 12.37%, AMT 12.08%Global X, as of 7 Oct 2026

Read the table in two columns. Contracts and money are dated 2026. Switched-on megawatts run from late 2026 to 2027 and beyond.

What AI data centers do / who gets paid

An AI data center turns land, power and money into a hall a tenant can fill with chips. Cash moves in this order:

  1. Land and grid first. A developer buys a site and queues for a grid connection. Utilities increasingly ask for money up front: see Texas’s $50,000-a-megawatt rule.
  2. Builders and equipment. Contractors, switchgear, transformers, generators and cooling get paid during construction. See US data-hall building at $85B a year.
  3. Lease signed. A hyperscaler, neocloud or AI lab signs. The landlord books backlog, but no rent flows yet.
  4. Power on, lease starts. Rent begins at commencement. Digital Realty’s average lag from signing to start was nine months in 2Q26.
  5. Rent and payouts. REITs pay most of their income out as distributions (DPU in Singapore). Lenders take coupons first.

Who gets paid, in order

  1. Equipment makers and builders, during construction.
  2. Utilities, through upfront payments, deposits and grid tariffs.
  3. Lenders, on coupons from the first draw (AirTrunk’s US$2.325B JHB2 loan, 29 Jul 2026).
  4. Landlords and REITs, only after the lease starts.
  5. Tenants, last: they earn once chips are installed and selling hours.

Stuck step

The popular story says data centers are short of demand or short of money. The prints say neither. NEXTDC has contracted 257% of what it has built. Digital Realty’s backlog is about 30% of its in-place data center rent. Equinix closed 134 MW of xScale leases in one quarter. What is short is switched-on capacity: halls with power connected and handed to the tenant.

That step moves slowly. NEXTDC expects 197 MW to convert to billing during FY27, about a third of its order book. Applied Digital’s 300 MW Polaris Forge 3 lease was signed in May 2026, with operations due in August 2027. In Johor, grid delivery, not power generation, is deciding which projects stay on schedule (Business Times, 12 Feb 2026). Our Applied Digital 75 MW Wire shows what a switch-on looks like when it does land.

Data center stocks, REITs and ETFs by role

This is an exposure map, not a buy list. Each route earns money at a different step.

RouteExamplesHow they get paidWhat to check
US data center REITsEquinix (EQIX), Digital Realty (DLR), Iron Mountain (data centers segment)Rent and interconnection once leases startBacklog, commencement timing, renewal spreads, AFFO per share
AI hosts and developers (not REITs)Applied Digital (APLD)Long take-or-pay leases, after energisationOpening dates, construction financing, tenant concentration
Singapore-listed data center REITsKeppel DC REIT, Digital Core REITRent paid out as DPUContracted power capacity, leverage, lease expiries, where the assets are
Australian landlords and developersNEXTDC (not a REIT), Goodman Group (industrial landlord with a data center pipeline)Billing MW; development profitsContracted vs billing MW, capex, power secured
Private platforms (not listed)AirTrunk (Blackstone-owned)Hyperscale leasesVisible through campus and loan announcements
Data center ETFsGlobal X DTCR; Pacer SRVRBasket of the above, plus towers and some chip and server namesWhat share is actually data centers; fee

Always check listing, currency and tax treatment where you live. Names here map roles. They are not recommendations.

Dates to watch

DateEventWhat to look for
28 Oct 2026Equinix Q3 2026 resultsxScale leasing, capex, AFFO guidance
29 Oct 2026Digital Realty Q3 2026 resultsHow much of the $635M 2H26 rent actually started
1 Dec 2026Digital Core REIT: 10-year cloud lease at 8217 Linton Hall startsOccupancy toward 98%; first rent from the converted building
FY27 (to Jun 2027)NEXTDC: 197 MW expected to convert to billingBilling MW at the half-year print
Aug 2027Applied Digital Polaris Forge 3 operationsWhether the 300 MW opens on time

What limits it

  1. Grid connections: substations and lines take longer than buildings.
  2. Build time and long-lead gear: transformers, switchgear and cooling.
  3. Financing: developers borrow years before rent starts; higher rates raise the cost of waiting.
  4. Tenant concentration: a few hyperscalers sign most large leases.
  5. Rules: Singapore allocates new capacity by tender; Johor has raised water tariffs and tightened approvals; US utilities are adding upfront large-load charges.

Stack

Explained

Markets and Wire

Practical takeaways

  1. Split every data center headline into three numbers: MW contracted, MW built, MW billing.
  2. For REITs, read backlog next to the commencement schedule. Backlog is not revenue until it starts.
  3. For AI hosts, the opening date matters more than the lease value.
  4. For S-REITs, check where the assets sit. Digital Core REIT owns no Singapore buildings; its 11 are in the US, Canada, Germany and Japan.
  5. Look inside an ETF before treating it as a data center basket.

FAQ

Is this a buy list?

No. It maps roles and the step that holds the cash. Names are examples of exposure, not picks. Not investment advice. Do your own research.

What are data center stocks?

Listed companies that own, build, lease or fill the powered buildings AI chips run in. The main groups are data center REITs (Equinix, Digital Realty), AI hosts and developers (Applied Digital), Asia landlords (Keppel DC REIT, Digital Core REIT, NEXTDC) and the equipment makers that supply them.

Is there a data center ETF?

Yes. The Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (DTCR) held 25 names with US$2.08 billion of net assets and a 0.50% expense ratio on 7 October 2026. About a quarter of it sat in tower companies, and 40.9% was in technology stocks, so it is not a pure data center basket. The Pacer Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF (SRVR) is a REIT-focused alternative.

Are data center REITs the same as AI data center stocks?

No. REITs are one row. A REIT earns rent once a lease starts and pays most of it out. AI hosts such as Applied Digital are not REITs; they sign long take-or-pay leases and borrow to build. NEXTDC is also not a REIT. Equipment makers get paid before any landlord.

Why is status Tightening on 2026-10-08?

Signed capacity is running far ahead of switched-on capacity. NEXTDC had 740.1 MW contracted against 287.9 MW built at 30 June 2026. Digital Realty’s signed-but-not-started backlog hit a record $1.9 billion. The bind is the date each hall gets power and starts billing.

How is this different from the Hyperscalers and Neoclouds layers?

Hyperscalers covers the cloud companies’ spending and power contracts. Neoclouds covers the firms that rent out GPU hours. This layer covers the buildings and the landlords: megawatts, halls, leases and the switch-on date.

What is an AI data center, in one line?

A building with the power, cooling and network to run dense racks of AI chips. Read the full explainer: What Is an AI Data Center? Who Gets Paid, Who Waits.

How we check

  1. MW contracted, built and billing, from company filings.
  2. Backlog and commencement schedules from REIT results.
  3. Opening dates from the landlord’s own release.
  4. Grid and allocation rules from regulators and utilities.

What would change the view

  • Billing MW catching up with contracted MW: the switch-on step clears.
  • Backlog falling because leases are cancelled, not because they started.
  • Opening dates slipping across several landlords at once.
  • Renewal rents turning negative.

Sources

  • NEXTDC FY26 results announcement (ASX), 27 Aug 2026 — contracted utilisation 740.1 MW pro forma; built capacity 287.9 MW; billing utilisation 175.0 MW; forward order book 565.1 MW; capex A$3,397M. Link
  • ARN, Aug 2026 — NEXTDC expects 197 MW to convert to billing during FY27. Link
  • Digital Realty 2Q26 results (GlobeNewswire), 23 Jul 2026 — record backlog $1.9B at 100% share ($1.4B DLR share); nine-month sign-to-start lag; renewal spreads +25.4% cash. Link
  • Digital Realty 2Q26 earnings call (transcript), 23 Jul 2026 — $635M of annualised rent to commence in 2H26; backlog ~30% of in-place data center rent. Link
  • Digital Realty, 1 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 results after market close on 29 Oct 2026. Link
  • Equinix 2Q26 results, 29 Jul 2026 — revenue $2.625B; 2026 revenue guidance $10.205–10.285B; total capex $5.0–6.0B. Link
  • Equinix 2Q26 earnings call (transcript), 29 Jul 2026 — 134 MW of xScale leases closed, ~$120M non-recurring fees. Link
  • Equinix media alert, 1 Oct 2026 — Q3 2026 call on 28 Oct 2026. Link
  • Applied Digital, 20 May 2026 — Polaris Forge 3: 300 MW, 15-year take-or-pay, ~$7.5B base term; 1,200 MW contracted; $31B contracted lease revenue; operations anticipated Aug 2027. Link
  • Keppel DC REIT 1H 2026 results, 23 Jul 2026 — DPU 5.714 cents (+11.3%); contracted power capacity ~95%; aggregate leverage 34.0%. Link
  • Digital Core REIT 1H 2026 results, Jul 2026 — DPU 1.80 US cents; occupancy 97.3%; leverage 39.2%; 11 facilities in the US, Canada, Germany and Japan; Linton Hall lease from 1 Dec 2026. Link
  • Singapore EDB / IMDA, 21 Aug 2026 — DC-CFA2 provisionally allocates 200 MW to four operators. Link
  • AirTrunk, 30 Apr 2026 — JHB3 and JHB4 add 280+ MW; Malaysia platform 700+ MW. Link
  • AirTrunk, 29 Jul 2026 — US$2.325B green financing for JHB2. Link
  • Goodman Group FY26 results (ASX), 20 Aug 2026 — A$19.7B WIP, data centres 78%; 6.4 GW power bank across 16 cities. Link
  • Global X, DTCR fund page, data as of 7 Oct 2026 — net assets $2.08B; 25 holdings; 0.50% expense ratio; top holdings and sector weights. Link
  • The Business Times, 12 Feb 2026 — Johor’s bottleneck is grid delivery, not generation. Link

Not investment advice. Do your own research.
Last updated: 2026-10-08 · Second Order by TKN

Further reading

Other desks cover this layer too. These keep their own addresses.