Goodman Has 6.4 GW of Power Banked. What Does the Price Assume?

ANALYSIS · MEMBERS CONTINUE · 5 min free / 14 min full · Data as at 16 Oct 2026

Goodman Group, Australia's largest listed property group, has banked 6.4 gigawatts of power for data centres in 16 cities. About 0.5 GW is being built, and 100 MW of that is signed to a tenant. Within two weeks it withdrew a Sydney data centre proposal and met council and resident pushback at its largest Japanese campus. On 16 October its securities closed at A$26.39, down 15% since June. What does the price already assume?

In short

• The question: what is Goodman's price already assuming about the lease step — the point where power is secured and capital is ready, but a hall still needs a signed tenant and a local licence before it earns?
• The answer: Scenario B. At A$26.39, the price needs roughly 2.6–3.1 GW of halls to be built, signed and sold through at last year's earnings rate (ours). That is most of the 3.6 GW of secured power, and five to six times the 0.5 GW now under way. It gives nothing for the 2.8 GW still being procured
• Why: the market pays about A$29.9 billion above book (ours). Spread over the whole power bank, that is about A$4.7 million per banked megawatt (ours), against about A$31 million of end value for a finished, fitted megawatt in Goodman's own pipeline
• The stuck step: only 20% of the 497 MW under way is leased (ours, from Goodman's table). The share of all work in progress that is committed fell from 37% at 31 March to 25% at 30 June
• Behind the wall: who gets paid, in order, while the leases wait · what one megawatt is worth · three scenarios, arithmetic shown · what the market could be right about · six practical takeaways · Members' FAQ
• What would break it: the unsigned halls lease and the price still falls (then the discount is about rates, not the step)
• Nothing here is a recommendation. This is a map of what the price requires, with the working shown

What's in this piece: the numbers that matter · why Goodman sits at the lease step · what A$26.39 already assumes · members from here · who gets paid while the leases wait · what one megawatt is worth · three scenarios, arithmetic shown · our read · what would change the view, with dates · practical takeaways · FAQ · references

The numbers that matter

Chart 1 — From power bank to signed hall: 6.4 GW banked, 3.6 GW secured, 497 MW under way, 100 MW leased. Second Order arithmetic from Goodman's FY26 results. Education only.

Why does Goodman sit at the lease step?

Goodman built its name on warehouses near big cities. In recent years it has turned that land, and the grid connections that come with it, into the raw material for data centres. Its power bank covers 6.4 GW in 16 cities, from Tokyo and Hong Kong to Paris and Los Angeles, and data centres are 78% of its development book. The AI Data Centers layer shows where landlords and developers sit on our map.

On the map, power is usually the step that binds. Goodman has much of that solved. It also has the money: gearing of 6.5%, A$6.4 billion of its own cash and undrawn lines, and A$12.4 billion across its partnerships. About 90% of the halls under construction sit inside those partnerships.

What it does not yet have is the signature. Of the 497 MW under way, 100 MW is leased: a 50 MW Tokyo building let for 20 years to a hyperscale customer, and a 50 MW Hong Kong shell let to one customer. Another 138 MW is in advanced talks. The rest, about 259 MW, is in negotiations or early customer contact (ours). Goodman is building fitted halls and signing as it goes; it links the drop in its committed share, from 37% to 25% in one quarter, to the growing data centre book.

The second gate is the licence. On 28 September Goodman withdrew its Lane Cove West proposal in Sydney, citing policy changes and community feedback, as our New South Wales Pulse covered. A week later, in Tsukuba, north of Tokyo, the city council unanimously asked the city to press Goodman for an open public briefing. Two days after that, residents held their first protest outside the site. Tsukuba is the campus with 1,000 MW of utility power secured. Its first 50 MW building is the one already leased. The other 950 MW is what is at stake.

So Goodman's stuck step is not power or money. It is the lease, and behind it the local licence for the next phase. Our Amazon piece saw permission from the buyer's side; this is the developer's.

What does A$26.39 already assume?

A developer's price is book value plus what the pipeline is expected to earn. Three answers compete:

1. The bank stays banked. Only the 497 MW under way becomes signed, sold halls by 2030; later phases stall on licences
2. Secured power converts. Most of the 3.6 GW with power in hand is built, signed and sold through at about last year's earnings rate. The 2.8 GW in procurement is a bonus, not a base
3. The whole bank converts. All 6.4 GW turns into halls

A tip sheet would pick a side. Analysis asks which answer the price already needs.

Our read, in one line: the price already assumes Scenario B. At A$26.39 the market pays about A$29.9 billion above book; after a plain value for the fee platform, that premium needs roughly 2.6–3.1 GW of halls built and sold through at last year's earnings rate — most of the 3.6 GW of secured power, and five to six times what is under way — while giving nothing for the 2.8 GW still being procured. The price is betting on signatures that only 100 MW has so far. The scenarios and the arithmetic are below.

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—— Still to read · ~9 of 14 minutes ——

MEMBERS CONTINUE HERE

• Who gets paid, in order, while the leases wait
• What one megawatt is worth
• Three scenarios with the arithmetic
• What the market could be right about
• Six practical takeaways
• Members' FAQ