VAT Group's Orders Outrun Its Factory. What Does the Price Assume?

ANALYSIS · MEMBERS CONTINUE · 5 min free / 14 min full · Data as at 26 Oct 2026

VAT Group makes the vacuum valves on the machines that make advanced chips. On 15 October it reported the biggest quarter of orders in its history: CHF 697 million, three times a year earlier, against sales of CHF 376 million. The shares fell that day and have drifted lower since, to CHF 560.20 on Friday 23 October. The orders are not the problem; the factory is. What does the price already assume about the step where valves wait to be built?

In short

• The question: what is VAT Group's share price assuming about factory output, the step where orders for vacuum valves arrive faster than VAT can make and ship them?
• The answer: close to Scenario C. At CHF 560.20 the market value is about CHF 16.8 billion (ours), about 81 times the last four quarters' net profit (ours). Held at 30 times settled profit, the price needs about CHF 2.4 billion of yearly sales at a 35% profit margin before interest, tax and depreciation (ours). That is close to all the factory space VAT says it has
• Why: the order book reached CHF 980 million on 30 September, up 279% in a year. Customers now order nine months or more ahead, against three months at the end of 2025
• The stuck step: factory output. VAT aims to ship at a rate of about CHF 450 million a quarter by the end of 2026. Its finance chief expects fourth-quarter orders of CHF 500 to 600 million. A second Malaysian factory starts in early 2027
• Behind the wall: who gets paid, in order, while valves wait · where the ramp's cash goes · three scenarios, arithmetic shown · what the market could be right about · six practical takeaways · Members' FAQ
• What would break it: output well above CHF 450 million a quarter and margins back inside VAT's band by the 2 March 2027 results, with the shares still near today's price
• Nothing here is a recommendation. This is a map of what the price requires, with the working shown

What's in this piece: the numbers that matter · why VAT sits at the factory-output step · what CHF 560 already assumes · members from here · who gets paid while valves wait · where the ramp's cash goes · three scenarios, arithmetic shown · our read · what would change the view, with dates · practical takeaways · FAQ · references

The numbers that matter

Chart 1 — VAT Group orders and sales by quarter, CHF millions, Q1 2025 to Q3 2026, with the company's fourth-quarter guide. From VAT's quarterly releases. Education only.

Why does VAT sit at the factory-output step?

Machines that etch and deposit chips work inside a vacuum. The valves that open and seal those chambers are precise and hard to make, and VAT calls itself the world's leading supplier. It sells mostly to the toolmakers our explainer on who makes wafer fab equipment maps, and to chip factories for spares and repairs.

When chipmakers decide to build, toolmakers order valves early. In 2026 AI data centres needed more advanced logic and memory chips, chipmakers raised spending, and orders for VAT valves jumped from CHF 306 million in the last quarter of 2025 to CHF 356 million, CHF 500 million and then CHF 697 million this year.

Sales lagged. VAT sold CHF 221 million of goods in the first quarter, CHF 291 million in the second and CHF 376 million in the third. Each quarter since the first, it shipped about 30% more than the one before. Orders grew faster still. The gap went into the order book, which nearly tripled from CHF 304 million at the end of 2025 to CHF 980 million.

VAT says customers are not ordering twice: the orders reflect real capacity needs, and windows stretch nine months or more because customers want a place in the queue. Buyers are watching the date, not just the price.

The bind is not floor space. VAT says its sites in Switzerland, Malaysia and Romania could make about CHF 2.5 billion of goods a year. The bind is how fast that space fills with trained people, parts and finished valves. VAT added 709 staff in the first half, more than half in Malaysia and nearly 90% temporary, and about 450 more in the third quarter. Malaysia is more than 90% used; a second building there, Factory 1B, starts in the first quarter of 2027. Romania is moving to finished valves, adding CHF 200 to 300 million of output.

This is the shape of our stuck-step map: demand arrives in a quarter, supply in years.

What does CHF 560 already assume?

A valve maker in a boom is valued on what it earns once output settles. Three answers compete:

1. The step stays stuck. Output stalls near CHF 450 million a quarter through 2027, and ramp costs hold the margin low
2. The step clears slowly. Output keeps rising through 2027, more slowly than this year, and the margin moves into the middle of the band
3. The step clears. By 2028 the factories ship close to the full CHF 2.5 billion a year VAT describes, at a margin near the top of its band

A tip sheet would pick one. Analysis asks which one the price needs.

Our read, in one line: the price already assumes most of Scenario C. At CHF 560.20, held at 30 times settled profit, VAT needs about CHF 2.4 billion of yearly sales at a 35% margin (ours), close to everything its factories could make. The price is paying for the factory ramp to work, not for the order book. The scenarios and the arithmetic are below.

The free preview ends here.

—— Still to read · ~9 of 14 minutes ——

MEMBERS CONTINUE HERE

• Who gets paid, in order, while valves wait
• Where the ramp's cash goes
• Three scenarios with the arithmetic
• What the market could be right about
• Six practical takeaways
• Members' FAQ