If Gas Turbines Stay Booked Into 2030, Where Does Cash Stick?

ANALYSIS · MEMBERS CONTINUE · 5 min free / 14 min full · Data as at 25 Oct 2026

The three biggest makers of large gas turbines now hold about 246 gigawatts of firm orders and paid-for reservations. GE Vernova alone holds almost six years of its current output. Customers are paying billions in cash years before a turbine ships, and a hyperscaler is now guaranteeing turbine payments before it has signed for a single megawatt-hour. If gas turbines stay booked into 2030, where does the cash stick?

In short

• The question: AI halls need power, and for many new US campuses the quickest big source is a gas plant. Its slowest part is the turbine. Who is paid while the turbine queue runs into 2030, and who waits?
• The answer: Scenario B. The turbine slot, not the hall, is the stuck step. Cash sticks first with the turbine makers, who collect reservation fees and down payments years ahead; then with the grid-gear makers reserved alongside them; then with whoever already holds a slot. Engine makers are paid by the impatient. Builders are paid at install. Data centre developers without a slot or a firm grid date wait longest
• Why: GE Vernova's gas backlog plus slot reservations reached 116 GW at 30 June, from 55 GW a year earlier. Siemens Energy holds 69 GW of backlog and 26 GW of reservations; Mitsubishi Heavy 35 GW of large-frame backlog. GE Vernova's cash received ahead of delivery in its Power segment rose by US$11.25 billion in six months (our arithmetic from its filing)
• The squeeze: BKV's turbine order needs a hyperscaler to cover about 90% of the first US$200 million before any power deal exists; Venture Global reserved factory capacity for eight power islands with a fee, and options on more that lapse from 2027
• What would break it: reservations lapsing as AI spending wobbles, as this month's slide in power shares hints (A), or new factory capacity and engines arriving faster than orders (C). Nothing here is a recommendation

What's in this piece: the numbers that matter · why the turbine became the clock · what the map assumes in one line · members from here · who gets paid, in order · three scenarios, arithmetic shown · our read · what would change the view, with dates · practical takeaways · FAQ · references

The numbers that matter

Chart 1 — Gas turbines under contract against yearly output at the two makers that state both. Company results; years of output are Second Order arithmetic. Education only.

Why did the turbine become the clock?

An AI hall earns nothing until it has power. Grid connections in many US markets now take years, so developers and their tenants increasingly build gas plants beside the hall or pay utilities to build them. Our utilities Analysis mapped what the grid charges before power flows, and the AI Data Centers layer shows where power sits in the chain.

The large turbine is the part of a gas plant with a queue. Three makers build most large frames, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy, and all three are already selling slots for 2030 and later.

A buyer first pays a fee for a slot reservation, a place in the factory's schedule, then converts it into a firm order and pays instalments years before delivery. Venture Global's filing on 15 October spells it out: a reservation fee obliges GE Vernova to hold manufacturing capacity, and the option to reserve more lapses in stages between October 2027 and October 2029.

That puts the cash at the front of the line. The question is no longer whether data centres want gas power; the order books say they do. It is who holds the cash and the slots while the queue runs into 2030, and what happens if reservations are not turned into orders. That second half is live. GE Vernova's shares fell 11% in the week to 20 October as investors sold AI power names on spending fears, even on the day Venture Global announced its deal with the company. Its third-quarter results on 28 October are the first test of how many reservations became orders.

What does the map already assume?

Three answers compete:

1. Reservations lapse. AI spending cools, buyers let options expire and some reservations never become orders. The queue shortens, and slots for 2029 and 2030 lose their premium
2. The queue holds and converts. Reservations keep becoming orders at this year's pace, factories ramp on plan, and the queue clears around 2030
3. The bind eases. New factory capacity and engines arrive faster than new orders, and open slots move back towards 2028

Our read, in one line: the map already assumes Scenario B. The turbine slot, not the hall, is the stuck step. Cash sticks first with the turbine makers, paid years ahead; then with the grid-gear makers reserved alongside; then with whoever already holds a slot. Engine makers are paid by the impatient, builders at install, and data centre developers without a slot or a firm grid date wait longest. The scenarios and the arithmetic are below.

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—— Still to read · ~9 of 14 minutes ——

MEMBERS CONTINUE HERE

• Who gets paid, in order, and who waits
• How much cash arrives before a turbine ships
• Three scenarios with the arithmetic
• What a slot is worth to the buyer holding it
• Five practical takeaways
• Members' FAQ