What Does CXMT's Price Assume About the Unfinished-Bay Stuck Step?

ANALYSIS · MEMBERS CONTINUE · 5 min free / 14 min full · Data as at 2 Nov 2026

CXMT (688825.SH) last printed CNY 41.72 on 2 November 2026. On the 67,884,099,077 shares in the 30 September balance sheet, that print is RMB 2.832 trillion (ours). The same accounts already booked RMB 118.714 billion of third-quarter sales at an 89.53% gross margin, and RMB 54.435 billion for the listed parent. Fixed assets rose RMB 1.876 billion. Construction in progress rose RMB 12.445 billion. This morning's China Pulse named who is paid on DRAM that shipped. Today asks what RMB 2.832 trillion already assumes while the next bay is still unfinished.

In short

• The question. What does CNY 41.72 already assume about DRAM billed at an 89.53% gross margin, while construction in progress is still RMB 44.235 billion and the sixth-generation die is an engineering sample?
• The answer. Scenario B. CNY 41.72 is 19.5× nine-month basic earnings of RMB 2.1369 a share (ours). A fourth quarter that repeats the third is 14.0× on that per-share method (ours). Parent book is 11.0× (ours). The price is paying for bits that already shipped
• Why. Nine-month parent profit was RMB 132.040 billion. Operating cash flow was RMB 254.751 billion, 1.93× that profit (ours). Minority owners took RMB 64.492 billion, so the parent keeps 67.2% (ours). The extra sales this quarter earned the parent an 8.3% incremental margin, against an 89.53% gross margin (ours)
• The gap. Construction in progress is 1.56% of RMB 2.832 trillion (ours). Cash capex of RMB 36.998 billion is 19.7× the rise in fixed assets (ours)
• What would break it. A fourth quarter that leaves the briefing's "stable" margin (A), or a later balance sheet that commissions the bay and names a shipment (C)
• Nothing here is a recommendation. The working is below the break

The numbers that matter

Sources: CXMT 2026 third-quarter report, board date 30 October, cninfo 31 October; Sina and Tencent quotes, 2 November 2026, 15:14 CST. The equity value, the multiples, the 8.3% incremental margin, the 1.56% and the 19.7× are ours. The report is marked unaudited.

The 19.5× is the price over the company's own nine-month basic earnings, RMB 2.1369 a share. A year earlier those nine months were a loss of RMB 0.0920 a share, so this quarterly file cannot support a twelve-month ratio and we do not borrow one from a data terminal. The shares in the RMB 2.832 trillion are the 67.88 billion outstanding on 30 September. The shares inside the earnings line are a weighted average — about 61.79 billion if you divide nine-month parent profit by RMB 2.1369 (ours) — because the offering landed in the quarter. Members get both counts, and the fourth-quarter cases, below. The free page only needs the direction. The tape is a claim on DRAM that has shipped. The unfinished bay is a small share of that claim.

Why does CXMT sit at the unfinished-bay stuck step?

CXMT is paid when a DRAM chip ships. The producing base is fixed assets. The next base is construction in progress. Those two lines moved apart.

Fixed assets went from RMB 183.024 billion to RMB 184.900 billion, up 1.0% (ours). Construction in progress went from RMB 31.790 billion to RMB 44.235 billion, up 39.1% (ours). The unfinished increase is 6.6× the producing increase (ours). Cash spent on buildings and equipment was RMB 36.998 billion, against RMB 36.191 billion a year earlier. Spending held. Commissioning did not.

The cash side of the same quarter is already in. Operating cash flow for the nine months was RMB 254.751 billion, 1.93× parent profit (ours). Cash equivalents were RMB 264.302 billion, 9.3% of the equity value (ours). Contract liabilities — cash in for chips not yet revenue — were RMB 7.036 billion. The bay can be funded. It has not been commissioned.

The filing's product sentence is one line: sixth-generation DRAM has completed engineering-sample verification. No mass production, no customer, no wafer start. On the 30 October briefing, the first 4F² DDR5 server module is expected out as a sample by year-end, with volume after customer verification. LPDDR6 is already climbing on a leading phone. The server die is not.

This morning's China Pulse read the same filing as who gets paid. Today's Runpod page bills a GPU by the second and has no share price. Yesterday's Wire was TSMC paying NT$38.8 billion for a display shell. The 30 October map was Samsung's empty rooms. Today is this price, on this bay. What a clean room is is the free map of the wait.

What does RMB 2.832 trillion already assume?

Three answers compete.

1. The shortage price breaks before the bay opens. Fourth-quarter gross margin leaves "stable". Sales fall. Parent profit for the quarter drops toward half of RMB 54.435 billion. The 19.5× nine-month multiple was a premium on a margin that did not hold
2. The company keeps getting paid on DRAM it can already build. Margin holds. Sales keep growing, with no range in the briefing. Fixed assets barely move. The next bay still binds
3. The bay commissions, and the sample becomes a shipment. A later balance sheet moves a real share of the RMB 44.235 billion into fixed assets, and a customer is named

Our read, in one line: the price already assumes Scenario B. CNY 41.72 is 19.5× nine-month basic earnings, and about 14.0× if the fourth quarter only repeats the third (ours). The unfinished bay is 1.56% of the equity value (ours). The commissioning binds the next wafer. The invoice binds the price. The scenarios and the arithmetic are below.

The free preview ends here.

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