ASML says its 2027 and 2028 supply won't meet chip demand
ASML said on 14 October that its planned scanner supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and some chipmakers want to order for 2029 and 2030. Q3 sales hit a record EUR 11.7 billion. The stuck step for AI wafers is now ASML's own build rate.
WIRE · SEMICONDUCTORS · GLOBAL · Data as at 14 Oct 2026
ASML said on 14 October 2026 that the scanner supply it has planned for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand. Some chipmakers are already asking to place orders for 2029 and even 2030. Third-quarter sales hit a record €11.7 billion and the company guided the fourth quarter to €14.2 to €15.2 billion. On the semiconductors layer, that is the only maker of EUV machines telling the fabs that the stuck step for 2027 and 2028 wafers is its own factory, not their demand.
What happened
14 October 2026 · ASML Q3 2026 results
"Supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers"
CEO Christophe Fouquet. ASML is now looking at ways to add 2028 capacity beyond the 30% step it set out in July
Order horizon
Some customers want to order for 2029 and 2030
Interest, not booked orders. ASML says customers keep raising short and medium-term tool forecasts on the size and length of AI spending
The quarter
€11.7bn sales, 57.5% gross margin, 121 systems sold
Up from €7.5bn and 72 systems a year earlier. Upgrades and service on installed tools were €3.3bn, above ASML's own guide
The guide
Q4 €14.2bn to €15.2bn; full year €44bn to €45bn
The full-year floor moved up from €43bn. China is still expected at about 20% of the business, CNBC reported
Why cash cares
Every leading-edge AI chip and most new DRAM pass through an ASML scanner. If ASML cannot build enough tools for 2027 and 2028, the fabs cannot add wafers as fast as they planned, whatever the GPU and custom-chip buyers are willing to pay. That makes the scanner slot the gate on the next two years of AI wafer supply.
The release does not carry a bookings figure, so the order signal sits in the words. "Will not fully meet demand" for two years out, plus customers asking about 2029 and 2030, is a seller with pricing power and a long queue. Reuters reported in September that existing EUV tools cost about $200 million each and were all but sold out through 2027, with High NA tools at about $400 million.
Our arithmetic, not a company figure. Q3 sales rose about 55% from a year earlier and about 25% from Q2. The Q4 guide midpoint of €14.7 billion would be another 26% on top of Q3, and about 51% above Q4 2025. Net system sales of €8.37 billion over 121 systems is about €69 million per system on average, across EUV, DUV and used tools. Upgrades and service grew about 68% from a year earlier to 28% of sales. That line is the relief valve: when new scanners are short, fabs pay to push more wafers through the tools they already own.
Figure: Sales are climbing into a capacity wall. ASML's quarterly net sales, the Q4 2026 guide range, and the 2027 to 2028 capacity clock.
The second-order read
Who gets paid. ASML first, on new scanners and on productivity upgrades for installed tools. Its optics and light-source supply chain next, since any capacity added beyond the planned 30% has to come through them. See who makes EUV machines.
Who waits. Chipmakers whose 2027 and 2028 wafer plans need new EUV layers: leading-edge logic foundries and the DRAM makers feeding HBM. Behind them, the GPU and custom-chip buyers whose supply depends on those wafers.
Who carries the risk. Customers who order early for 2029 and 2030 to hold a place in the queue. If AI spending slows, they own tool commitments sized for a bigger market.
Stuck step. Scanner slots for 2027 and 2028. Demand is not the limit on this layer right now; ASML's own build rate is.
Two cautions
Interest in 2029 and 2030 orders is not an order. The release carries no bookings figure, so nobody outside the company can size the backlog from it.
Q3 net income of €5.0 billion includes a €510 million gain on equity investments. Margin and sales are the cleaner read of the quarter than the profit line.
What would change the view
- A firm 2028 capacity number above the planned 30% step, with a date.
- Customers converting 2029 and 2030 interest into named orders or prepayments.
- A fab cutting or delaying a 2027 or 2028 tool plan, which would loosen the queue.
What to watch
- The investor call at 15:00 CET today, which is 21:00 SGT: any number for 2028 capacity.
- TSMC's Q3 results on Thursday 15 October at 14:00 Taiwan time: whether its 2027 capex plan leans on more EUV tools or more upgrades.
- The upgrades line: if it keeps growing faster than system sales, fabs are squeezing old tools because new ones are short.
Read: What Does ASML Do?, EUV vs DUV, and ASML raises lithography parts prices 10% for Samsung and SK hynix
Get the Wire. A free brief every day, here and in your inbox. Subscribe free →
Not investment advice. Do your own research. The growth rates, the €69 million average per system and the upgrades share are our arithmetic from ASML's reported figures.
References
- ASML, "ASML reports €11.7 billion total net sales and €5.0 billion net income in Q3 2026", 14 Oct 2026. Q3 sales, margin and systems sold, Q4 and full-year guide, the 2027 and 2028 supply statement, and the 2029 to 2030 order interest.
- ASML, "Financial statements US GAAP Q3 2026", 14 Oct 2026. Quarterly system and service sales, units sold, and the gain on equity investments.
- CNBC, "ASML says it's getting order interest through 2030 as profit smashes expectations", 14 Oct 2026. Prior full-year floor of €43 billion and China at about 20% of sales.
- Reuters, "ASML extends chipmaking dominance as customers embrace High NA", 14 Sep 2026. EUV tools at about $200 million, all but sold out through 2027; High NA at about $400 million.
- Reuters, "ASML capacity upgrade soothes AI chip bottleneck fears", 15 Jul 2026. The July plan to add capacity in 2027 and 2028.
