Oracle cites force majeure on Project Jupiter — power, not GPUs, is the stuck step
Oracle sent a force majeure notice on its ~2.45 GW New Mexico Stargate campus over power delays — the same week its AI fleet stayed 97.9% full after delivering 850 MW.
WIRE · HYPERSCALERS · Data as at 24–27 Sep 2026
Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its New Mexico Stargate campus, citing potential delays securing power. The same week it printed 850 MW of delivered AI capacity with the GPU fleet still 97.9% full. For investors the stuck step on the hyperscalers layer is not whether AI demand exists — it is which megawatts are lit and accepted versus which announced gigawatts are still waiting on power paper.
What happened
On 24 September 2026 Reuters and Bloomberg reported that Oracle issued a force majeure notice to Stack Infrastructure, a Blue Owl Capital unit developing Project Jupiter in Santa Teresa, New Mexico — a ~1,400-acre campus designed for about 2.45 GW and backed by roughly $18 billion in construction loans (Reuters, 24 Sep 2026; Bloomberg Law, 24 Sep 2026). Weekend follow-ups on 27 September kept the same bind in view (Seoul Economic Daily, 27 Sep 2026; Propmodo, 27 Sep 2026).
| Figure | Source / date | |
|---|---|---|
| Campus (Project Jupiter) | ~1,400 acres · ~2.45 GW design | Bloomberg Law, 24 Sep 2026 |
| Construction financing | ~$18bn bank loans | Reuters / Bloomberg, 24 Sep |
| Blue Owl equity | ~$3bn | Reuters source, 24 Sep |
| Planned online | 2028 | Bloomberg / Reuters |
| Force majeure aim | Delay rent start if power derails 2028 COD | Bloomberg sources |
| Oracle Q1 FY27 delivered AI capacity | 850 MW (+ >300k GPUs) | Oracle press, 10 Sep 2026 |
| GPU util after that add | 97.9% | Oracle Q1 FY27 call |
What the notice does — and does not. Force majeure is a contract tool, not a cancelled campus. A person familiar with the matter told Reuters that securing power is Oracle's responsibility under the contract, that Oracle cannot terminate the lease, and that Blue Owl holds about $3 billion of equity while Oracle carries debt costs. Bloomberg's sources said Oracle is trying to put off rent if Jupiter fails to come online in 2028 as planned — with a possible multi-year delay on when rent starts, while still owing the full lease term once payments begin. Blue Owl said the notice "does not change the financial commitments" and that the parties remain "fully aligned." An Oracle spokesperson said force-majeure notices are "commonplace," "do not, by themselves, establish a project delay or change delivery expectations," and that "Project Jupiter remains on our planned schedule."
The physical bind is already dated. A key Energy Transfer natural-gas pipeline meant to feed the campus was delayed to 1 February 2027 after New Mexico State Land Office permit denials. Local opposition has hit air-quality paper and on-site generation plans; Bloom Energy fuel cells sit in the design path. Project Jupiter is part of Stargate and Oracle's large OpenAI capacity commitment — announced gigawatts that only become cash when halls light and customers take billed hours.
Why cash cares
On the hyperscalers layer, Oracle books AI cloud contracts and delivers halls and GPUs. Who gets paid is whoever can attach accepted capacity — not who names a campus. See What Does Oracle Do? for the model.
Two clocks, one week:
- Lit fleet. Our 24 Sep Wire covered the Q1 FY27 print: 850 MW delivered, Cloud Infrastructure revenue +121% to $7.4 billion, GPU util still 97.9%. That is cash on working seats.
- Announced campus. Project Jupiter's force majeure is the other clock — power and permits before rent starts and before GPU hours can clear.
Who waits is offtake that needs those New Mexico megawatts in 2028, and lenders watching project debt trade stressed (Bloomberg: below 90 cents). Who still gets paid is the fleet that already attached.
The same week's US interconnect Pulse mapped the paper twin: FERC kept a 1.8 GW Joliet TSA alive over a $1 letter of credit (our US Markets Pulse, 25 Sep 2026). Jupiter is power-and-permit beside that credit story. Announced GW is not paid GW.
The second-order read
| Who | Where they sit | What this means |
|---|---|---|
| Lit Oracle AI Cloud fleet | Delivered MW · high util | Still clears billed hours after 850 MW add |
| Project Jupiter / Stack–Blue Owl | Greenfield campus | Force majeure preserves rent timing if power derails 2028 COD |
| Power + permit path | Gas line · air/water paper | Stuck step before rent clock and GPU attach |
| OpenAI / Stargate offtake | Contracted capacity path | Needs halls that energise, not only named campuses |
| Lenders | Project debt marks | Stressed marks are a signal, not a default finding |
Who gets paid. Operators on energised, accepted megawatts — the 97.9% util print after a large add. Development-stage equity (Reuters: Blue Owl ~9% yield while building, ~11% levered when complete) sits on a different clock than customer GPU hours. Who waits. Capacity that needs Jupiter's ~2.45 GW online in 2028.
By clock. Delivery = lit MW and util. Campus = power and permits before rent and attach. Collapse them and you treat force majeure as if it erased the 850 MW print — or the 850 MW print as if it cleared Jupiter. Neither holds.
Our read: campus stuck step = power and permits before rent; live fleet stuck step = attach on delivered megawatts. Ready is not paid.
Two cautions
These are reported notices and spokesperson lines — not a finding that force majeure succeeded, and not an admission that COD slipped. Oracle says the schedule is unchanged; Blue Owl says commitments are unchanged. Treat the notice as a risk-allocation move on power delays, not a cancelled campus.
William Blair, via Reuters, expects minimal short-term revenue impact because Jupiter contributes no FY27 revenue. That is timing, not clearance. The question is 2028 COD and offtake — not this quarter's Cloud print. Do not invent a dollar impact from the notice alone.
What would change the view
- Dated New Mexico air/water/pipeline clearance that puts Jupiter on a firm 2028 path without rent deferral.
- Oracle or Blue Owl stating COD moved, with a new public date.
- Project debt recovering as permits clear — or a formal default (neither is in the 24–27 Sep print).
- Lit-fleet util falling sharply while delivered MW keeps rising.
- Another Stargate / hyperscaler campus printing a similar force-majeure or rent fight.
What to watch
- Power path: Energy Transfer line after 1 Feb 2027; New Mexico air-permit and State Land Office actions.
- Contract outcome: whether Oracle and Stack/Blue Owl agree a force-majeure event and any rent-start deferral.
- Next Oracle print: Q2 FY27 capacity deliveries and GPU util vs the 850 MW / 97.9% shape.
- Offtake: any OpenAI / Stargate re-path away from or through New Mexico.
- US paper twin: N.D. Illinois on Joliet's $1 TSA; mid-November RTO large-load filings (see US interconnect Pulse).
Read: Hyperscalers — The Capex-Setting Layer and What Does Oracle Do? for how the model sits on the map — and Oracle delivered 850 MW — fleet still 97.9% full for the lit-fleet print beside this campus notice.
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Sources: Reuters, 24 Sep 2026 — reported (force majeure notice; Blue Owl / Oracle positions; financing); Bloomberg Law, 24 Sep 2026 — reported (campus size, rent-delay mechanics, spokesperson quotes, debt marks); Seoul Economic Daily, 27 Sep 2026 — reported follow-up; Propmodo, 27 Sep 2026 — reported follow-up; Oracle Q1 FY27 press / call, 10 Sep 2026 — company (850 MW, util). Not investment advice. Do your own research.
