What Does Hua Hong's Price Assume About the Full-Slot Stuck Step?

ANALYSIS · MEMBERS CONTINUE · 5 min free / 14 min full · Data as at 5 Nov 2026

Hua Hong Grace closed on 5 November with the specialty fabs already full, and with the quarter's results still unpublished. The Hong Kong line finished at HK$67.30. The Shanghai line's close, carried into the next session as the previous close, was RMB 162.00. On our arithmetic those two closes are worth US$25,847.2 million together. The results file reached the exchange at 16:30, after the cash market had shut. The stuck step is the specialty slot. Utilization was already 102.9% in the quarter the price had not yet been shown.

In short

• The question: what does Hua Hong Grace's price assume about a specialty slot that is already full?
• The price in this page is the 5 November close, not the 6 November session. That session was still open when this page was written, so it is not in the multiple.
• Hong Kong shares: 1,329,976,402 at HK$67.30. Shanghai shares: 598,518,392 at RMB 162.00. Same company, two prices. The sum is US$25,847.2 million (ours).
• The quarter the close had not seen: revenue US$987.1 million, utilization 102.9%, profit attributable to owners US$123.4 million. Owners' equity at 30 September was US$6,962.9 million, down from US$7,257.8 million at 30 June.
• Three ways to read the close. A: the slot opens and the multiple was for a shortage that ends. B: the full slot is the product, and the price is for another quarter like this one. C: the guide is missed and the slot opens together. Our read is B. The arithmetic is below the break.

The numbers that matter

The operating print is the third-quarter release published on 5 November. The share count is the monthly return for October, submitted on 4 November, which shows no change in either line during October. The Hong Kong close is the daily quotation for 5 November. The Shanghai figure is the previous close on the 688347 quotation at the start of the 6 November session. The rates are the CFETS central parity for 5 November: US dollar 6.7156 renminbi, Hong Kong dollar 0.85601 renminbi. Dividing those two parities gives 7.8452 Hong Kong dollars per US dollar (ours).

The morning's China pulse is the operating account of this same file. It stops before a price. This page starts at the price. The pulse's division of revenue by wafers, US$987.133 million over 1.911 million, is US$516.55 a wafer. That division is used again below, and it is marked as ours there as it was on the pulse. Owners' equity is the book the members' section divides the US$25,847.2 million into. It was US$294.9 million smaller at 30 September than at 30 June, in a quarter the release still calls tight.

Why does the 5 November close matter?

Because it is the last close that could not have traded this print. The exchange lists the quarterly results at 16:30 on 5 November. Hong Kong cash trading ends at 16:00. The title list is the clock. The Hong Kong line fell from a previous close of HK$68.70 to HK$67.30, which is 2.0% (1.40 divided by 68.70, ours). That move happened in a session whose news was still the prior quarter's fullness, not this file.

The two lines are one company. The October return was filed on 4 November and shows neither line changed during October, so the close sits on shares already in issue. That return, and the 11 September completion announcement, both put Hong Kong shares at 1,329,976,402 and Shanghai shares at 598,518,392. The Shanghai quarterly report prints the same split, 68.96% and 31.04%. This page uses the Hong Kong release for every dollar of profit and every dollar of equity. It uses the Shanghai report only as a second reading of the share count. It does not translate the renminbi earnings in that report into the multiple.

The conversion is mechanical. Hong Kong: 1,329,976,402 times HK$67.30 is HK$89,507,411,854.60, divided by 7.8452, which is US$11,409.2 million. Shanghai: 598,518,392 times RMB 162.00 is RMB 96,959,979,504, divided by 6.7156, which is US$14,438.0 million. The sum is US$25,847.2 million. Per share, in dollars, the Hong Kong close is US$8.58 and the Shanghai close is US$24.12 (ours). A holder of only the Hong Kong line pays the first figure. A holder of only the Shanghai line pays the second. The Shanghai line is 181% above the Hong Kong line for the same claim. It is 31.04% of the shares and 55.9% of the US$25,847.2 million. A holder of one line is not paying the other line's price. The company price used here is the sum.

Sixty-seven thousand options were outstanding at 31 October and none were exercised in the month. They are 0.003% of the share count (ours). They are left out of the value.

The 6 November session is the first session that can have seen the print. It was not closed at the time of writing. A later close can move every multiple on this page. The multiples below are the 5 November close only.

What are the three ways this can sit?

• A. The slot opens. A later quarter prints utilization at or below 100%, and the wafer price stops rising. The 5 November close was then a price for a shortage that ended.
• B. The full slot is the product. Utilization stays above 100%, the wafer price holds the move to US$516.55, and the close is a price for another quarter with this much profit. The next tool is a separate cheque.
• C. The guide and the slot fail together. Fourth-quarter revenue misses US$1,080–1,090 million and utilization falls through 100% in the same print. The close was a price for one quarter.

Our read, in one line: Scenario B. The close pays for a slot that stays full. The worked multiples are members-only.

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