Analysis
Members' Analysis: one question at the stuck step, worked through with the numbers, three scenarios and what would change the view. Free preview, full piece for paid members. Education only, not investment advice.
Get the Wire
Analysis
When short AI contracts clear near $40 million per megawatt and contracted power hits about 4.2 GW, what stuck step does the neocloud map already assume — utilization and short-contract price, power and hall delivery, or customer concentration?
Analysis
ASE sits at the packaging stuck step as OSAT overflow and LEAP/test behind TSMC CoWoS. At roughly NT$3.10 trillion, the question is what LEAP growth and capacity clocks that price already assumes.
Analysis
CoWoS-L is expected to stay the mainstream AI packaging path through 2028. The money question is who clears the tool and material validation gate before those lines can run.
Analysis
Hanmi Semiconductor sits at the memory stuck step with the bonders every HBM stack needs. At roughly ₩22 trillion, the question is what growth and margin that price already assumes.
Analysis
Advanced packaging has been the step the whole AI build chain waits for since 2024. Reported capacity plans put that gap closing through 2027. This piece works out what binds next — and it is not the step most people assume.
