Meta's unstarted data center leases jump $77B to $356B

WIRE · HYPERSCALERS · UNITED STATES · Data as at 22 Oct 2026

Meta has signed for far more data center space than it has moved into. Its quarterly filing on 22 October 2026 puts the leases it has signed but not yet started at about $355.7 billion, up from $279.0 billion at the end of June and $103.8 billion at the end of 2025. That is about $77 billion of new unstarted leases in three months. None of it sits on the balance sheet yet. It lands there, building by building, when each landlord hands the space over, from late 2026 through 2036. On the Hyperscalers layer, the builders and lenders behind those halls have the signature. They are still waiting for the move-in date that turns it into rent.

What happened

Why cash cares

A signed lease is a promise to pay rent later. Under US accounting, a lease goes onto the balance sheet only when it commences, which is when the landlord makes the space available. Until then it sits in a footnote. At 30 September Meta's balance sheet carried about $31.2 billion of operating lease liabilities. The footnote now carries about $355.7 billion more, which have not started.

The mix is widening as well. In June Meta described its unstarted leases as data centers, colocations and network infrastructure. In September it added energy-related infrastructure to that list. Its purchase commitments now name energy service agreements for data centers too, so part of the power behind those halls is now contracted, as well as the buildings.

Some of the space is being built through joint ventures in which Meta is a minority owner. It holds 20% of a Louisiana venture with about $27 billion of estimated development costs and 20% of a Texas venture with about $14 billion. Meta leases the campuses back from those ventures, from 2029 in Louisiana and 2028 in Texas, on initial four-year terms that can run to 20 years. It has also given each venture a residual value guarantee, which could require a payment if Meta walks away and the property is worth less than an agreed threshold. The filing says no such payment is probable, so none is recorded.

Here is our own arithmetic, not a company figure. The unstarted leases rose about 27.5% in the quarter and about 3.4 times since the end of 2025, an increase of about $252 billion in nine months. Purchase commitments rose about $105 billion, or 30%, in the quarter. Together, Meta added about $182 billion of new leases and commitments in three months, about 5.2 times what it spent on capital projects in the same quarter. Firm leases and commitments now total about $810 billion. Adding the contingent cloud capacity Meta may have to buy, up to $14.7 billion, gives about $825 billion. The unstarted leases are about 11 times the operating lease liabilities already on the balance sheet, about 4.3 times its $82.5 billion of cash and marketable securities, and about 2.5 times the midpoint of its 2026 capital spending outlook. Commitments due in 2027 rose about 49% from the June figure of $81.7 billion. In the third quarter, capital spending was about 106% of operating cash flow.

Figure: Signed, not started. Meta's leases that had not yet commenced at the end of 2025, June 2026 and September 2026, with its non-cancelable commitments and cash at 30 September. The increases and ratios are our arithmetic on Meta's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings and its third-quarter results release.

The step that is still open

Handover. Every one of those leases starts only when its building is finished, powered and handed to Meta, and the start dates run for ten years. Meta's filing does not say how much of the $355.7 billion starts in any given year, which halls it covers, or how much depends on power that is not yet connected. Each delayed hall pushes rent for its landlord further out. Each hall that arrives on time adds a new lease liability and a new rent bill to Meta's balance sheet.

Meta is paying for the build at the same time. Its free cash flow turned negative in the third quarter. It sold $24.9 billion of notes in May. About $10.8 billion of its money market funds are now held in escrow under multi-year infrastructure purchase agreements and cannot be used for general purposes. The new Class C shares are there, in Meta's words, to conduct equity offerings. The signatures are done. The halls, the power and the money to keep paying for both still have to arrive in step.

The second-order read

Who gets paid. Data center developers and colocation landlords, once each lease starts. Owners of energy infrastructure and the suppliers under Meta's energy service agreements. Third-party cloud providers, servers and network gear suppliers, from the $45.9 billion of commitments due over the rest of 2026 and $121.4 billion due in 2027. The majority partners in the Louisiana and Texas ventures, once the leasebacks begin.

Who pays. Meta, from operating cash flow that no longer covers its capital spending, plus bonds and, from January 2027, a share class built for raising equity.

Who waits. The landlords and their lenders, from signature to handover, a gap that can run to 2036. Meta shareholders, until revenue from the new capacity catches up with the bills.

Stuck step. Getting each leased hall built, powered and handed over on schedule, while Meta keeps the funding in place.

Three cautions

The totals mix very different things. The commitments include Reality Labs hardware as well as cloud capacity, servers and energy contracts, and Meta does not split out the AI share.

These are totals over long terms. The lease figure covers terms of up to 30 years, so it is not a yearly bill, and it is not a measure of what Meta will spend on capital projects in any one year.

Signed is not built. Meta does not give a yearly schedule for the unstarted leases, so a slower handover would shift both the rent and the risk rather than remove them.

What to watch

• Next quarterly filing: whether the unstarted lease total keeps rising, or begins to fall as halls are handed over and move onto the balance sheet.
• Rest of 2026: whether the $45.9 billion of commitments due this year is paid on schedule.
• 19 January 2027: the Class C shares take effect, and with them the first possible equity raise.
• Fourth-quarter results: Meta's first capital spending outlook for 2027, which it has so far declined to give.
• The other hyperscalers: Alphabet and Microsoft report on 28 October and Amazon on 29 October, each with a similar lease footnote.

Read: Meta's Q3 capex and free cash flow, if $1.1 trillion of signed leases waits on handover, capex vs depreciation and Amazon says AWS is sold out into 2028

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Not investment advice. Do your own research. The $77 billion, $252 billion, $182 billion and $810 billion figures, the 27.5%, 30%, 49% and 106% figures, and the 3.4, 5.2, 11, 4.3 and 2.5 times ratios are our arithmetic.

References

1. Meta Platforms, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, 22 Oct 2026. Unstarted leases, purchase commitments, ventures, escrow, cash and Class C shares.
2. Meta Platforms, third quarter 2026 results release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K), 21 Oct 2026. Free cash flow, capital spending and outlook.
3. Meta Platforms, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, 30 Jul 2026. June lease and commitment figures.
4. Meta Platforms, Form 10-K for 2025, 29 Jan 2026. December 2025 unstarted lease figure.
5. Bloomberg, "Meta Reports $825 Billion in Future Spending Commitments", 22 Oct 2026.