TSMC September sales put Q3 above its own guidance

WIRE · SEMICONDUCTORS · TAIWAN · Data as at 8 Oct 2026

TSMC, the company that makes most of the world's advanced AI chips, reported NT$511.86 billion of sales for September on 8 October. Add July and August and the third quarter comes to about NT$1.49 trillion. That is above the top of the range TSMC gave in July, at its own exchange-rate assumption. On the semiconductors layer, the sales are now in. What is not yet known is how much of it TSMC keeps. Its 2-nanometer chips are ramping fast, and TSMC said in July that this would cut its margin.

What happened

On 8 October 2026, TSMC published its September revenue report. Its monthly table covers the rest of the quarter.

The facts as reported:

TSMC reports the quarter in full, with dollar revenue and margin, on 15 October.

Why cash cares

TSMC is paid when it ships finished chip wafers to the companies that design the chips. So this sales number is close to real money. It is not a promise, like a backlog. The open question is the margin: how much of each dollar is left after the cost of making the wafer.

Here is our own arithmetic, not a TSMC figure. July, August and September add up to about NT$1,494 billion. At TSMC's assumed rate of 32 NT dollars to the dollar, the top of its range was about NT$1,466 billion. So the quarter came in about 2% above the top. At that same rate, it is roughly US$46.7 billion. In NT dollars, it is about 18% more than the second quarter's NT$1,270 billion.

The catch is the exchange rate. TSMC set its range in US dollars. If the NT dollar was weaker than 32 per dollar over the quarter, part of this beat is just currency. The dollar number on 15 October settles that.

Figure: Margin bind. Third-quarter sales are booked at about NT$1.49 trillion. Next comes the stuck step: the 2-nanometer ramp cuts margin by 3 to 4 points. On 15 October we see how much of the sales TSMC kept.

The step that is still open

New chip lines cost more to run at first. TSMC said in July that its 2-nanometer ramp would pull gross margin down by about 3 to 4 points in the second half. Its newer overseas plants cost another 2 to 3 points in their early years. That is why it guided the third-quarter margin down to 65% to 67%, from 67.7% in the second quarter.

To size it, again our arithmetic: on about NT$1,494 billion of sales, each point of margin is worth about NT$15 billion, or close to half a billion US dollars. A 66% margin would leave about NT$986 billion of gross profit. More sales help, but only if the new 2-nanometer wafers do not cost more than planned.

The second-order read

Who gets paid. TSMC first, as wafers ship. Then the toolmakers, such as the EUV machine makers, out of a capital budget of up to US$64 billion this year. That cash leaves TSMC before the new lines earn anything. It is cash capex.

Who pays. The chip designers that buy TSMC wafers. TSMC does not name them in its monthly report.

Who waits. TSMC shareholders, until 15 October, for the margin. And the AI chip buyers further down the chain. A wafer sold in September still has to be packaged, paired with memory and built into racks before a cloud bills for it.

Stuck step. The margin on the 2-nanometer ramp. Sales beat the range. What TSMC keeps from them is not known until 15 October.

Two cautions

The NT$1.49 trillion is a sum of three unaudited monthly numbers. TSMC's own figures for 2026 are marked as not yet audited.

The beat is measured in NT dollars at TSMC's 32 rate. The real US-dollar result could be smaller if the currency moved. The US$46.7 billion is our conversion, not a reported number.

What would change the view

• The 15 October gross margin lands near the top of 65% to 67%. That would mean the 2-nanometer ramp is costing less than feared.
• The margin lands below 65%. That would mean the new chips cost more to make than planned.
• TSMC raises or trims its US$60 billion to US$64 billion capital budget.
• The fourth-quarter guidance points to more growth, or to a pause after a record August.

What to watch

• TSMC third-quarter results on 15 October: US-dollar revenue, gross margin, and the 2-nanometer share of wafer sales (3% in the second quarter).
• October sales on 10 November, the first month of the fourth quarter.
• Toolmaker orders as the capital budget is spent.
• Packaging capacity, which decides how fast these wafers become working AI chips.

Read: Semiconductors, What Does TSMC Do?, TSMC's August capex split, Who Makes EUV Machines?, and What Is Cash Capex?

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Sources: TSMC September 2026 Revenue Report, 8 Oct 2026: September NT$511.86B, down 0.6% month on month, up 54.6% year on year; January to September NT$3,898.73B, up 41.1%; TSMC 2026 monthly revenue table, as of 8 Oct 2026: July NT$467.58B, August NT$514.81B, 2026 figures unaudited; TSMC second-quarter 2026 earnings release, 16 Jul 2026: second-quarter revenue NT$1,270.38B, gross margin 67.7%, 2nm 3% of wafer revenue, third-quarter guidance US$44.6B to US$45.8B at 32 NT dollars per US dollar, gross margin 65% to 67%; TSMC second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), 16 Jul 2026: 2nm dilution of about 3 to 4 points in the second half, overseas fab dilution of 2% to 3% early, capital budget raised to US$60B to US$64B, second-quarter capex US$15.7B; TSMC financial calendar: third-quarter results 15 Oct 2026, October sales 10 Nov 2026. The quarterly sum, the comparison with guidance, the US-dollar conversion, the per-point margin value and the gross-profit example are our arithmetic. Not investment advice. Do your own research.