Analysis
Members' Analysis: one question at the stuck step, worked through with the numbers, three scenarios and what would change the view. Free preview, full piece for paid members. Education only, not investment advice.
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Analysis
KLA closed at $147.83, about $192.9 billion. It already recognised $2.837 billion of inspection tools. What does the price assume about getting paid on the check while the die still waits on a scanner?
Analysis
NVIDIA numbered $1.1bn for KYEC test and $1.3bn for Amkor Korea. The seats those dollars buy are dated 2027 and 2028. Who is paid if cash books the finish before the line is live.
Analysis
Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet have signed about $1.1 trillion of data centre leases that start only at handover, 3.3 times a year ago. Who gets paid first, who waits, three scenarios with the arithmetic shown.
Analysis
Lam Research closed at $263.45, about $329.7 billion. It already shipped $4.250 billion of etch tools. What does the price assume about getting paid on the etch while two China NAND fabs wait on a US licence?
Analysis
Wiwynn's September revenue doubled, yet its operations used NT$61.6 billion of cash in the first half as inventory and memory bought for customers piled up. What the price assumes, who gets paid first, three scenarios with the arithmetic shown.
Analysis
Israel's plenum capped new data centers at 200 MW and priced the queue. 27,000 MW of requests sit against 1,300 MW of new connections. Who is paid while the approved connection is the scarce object.
Analysis
NiSource closed at $42.68, about $20.47 billion. Microsoft adds 1,100 MW to a shared pool from 2028. What does the price assume about getting paid while named generation still waits?
Analysis
At ₩1,277,000 SK hynix is worth about ₩933 trillion. That pays for about 11 more quarters at its second-quarter profit rate before a fall back to 2025's size. The HBM4 back end decides 2027's share. What the price assumes, arithmetic shown.
Analysis
CoreWeave's default swaps hit about 1,038 bp while rated GPU loans priced near 6-7%. The price of neocloud money now splits by customer. Who gets paid first, who waits, three scenarios with the arithmetic shown.
Analysis
At A$26.39 Goodman trades about A$29.9 billion above book. That premium needs most of its 3.6 GW of secured power to become signed, sold halls, while only 100 MW of the 497 MW under way is leased. What the price assumes, arithmetic shown.
Analysis
Mason County named Meta on a 2.2 GW campus and a $10 billion first cheque. The wires have dates. The 396 MW first building already crosses the 250 MW dedicated-power line. Who is paid while the plant is still unnamed.
Analysis
The MGX 1.2 rack runs to 250 kW on a 48-volt, 5,000-amp busbar while NERC grid rules pass their final ballot. Who gets paid between the grid connection and the rack, arithmetic shown.
