If New Halls Stay Capped at 200 MW, Where Does Cash Stick?

ANALYSIS · MEMBERS CONTINUE · 5 min free / 14 min full · Data as at 20 Oct 2026

On the night of Sunday 18 October 2026, Israel's Electricity Authority agreed that no new data center may connect more than 200 MW, and that developers must post NIS 2 million for every megawatt they ask for. Globes puts 1,300 MW of new connections to 2030, 300 MW of it for local use. Calcalist puts about 2,000 MW already approved. Noga is holding 27,000 MW of requests against 18,800 MW of installed plant. This map asks who is paid if that cap holds.

In short

• The question: if new halls stay capped at 200 MW while 27 GW queues for about 1.3 GW of new connections, where does the cash stick?
• The answer: Scenario B. Already-approved connections get paid — the connection is now a product. Banks get paid on guarantees for the slice that posts: NIS 2.6 billion across 1,300 MW, about $836 million at the Bank of Israel's 3.1100 shekel (ours). Backup-kit makers get paid on halls the grid can cut. 25,700 MW of the queue, and tenants who need power that does not switch off, wait
• Why: the 18 October plenum, reported on 18–19 October, capped each new site at 200 MW and priced the queue. Today's Wire gave the news. Today's China Pulse shows Hygon already booking RMB 14.95 billion of nine-month sales while advanced HBM still waits. Today's Stack shows Lam already paid on $4.250 billion of June systems while the scanner slot still binds. This map is the Israeli connection, not a stock
• The size of the gate: 1,300 ÷ 27,000 = 4.81% of requested megawatts get a new connection to 2030 (ours). That is one megawatt in 20.8 (ours). Globes rounded the same ratio to 4%. At 200 MW a site, 1,300 ÷ 200 = 6.5 campuses — six full-size halls plus 100 MW, or at least seven sites if none takes the ceiling, as Asher Bichonsky told Globes
• What would break it: a final rule that lets one site connect in several 200 MW steps, or that favours own-generation, which would bring the megaprojects back in a different shape (A); or a consultation that hardens the disconnection rule until even a 200 MW hall cannot be leased (C)
• Nothing here is a recommendation. Arithmetic shown below the wall

The numbers that matter

Sources: Calcalist, 19 Oct 2026; Globes, 18 Oct 2026; Bank of Israel, 19 Oct 2026. Dollar figures and ratios are ours.

Why is the 200 MW connection the stuck step?

A 1,111 MW hall is not a 200 MW hall. Globes names Mega DC's Hadera plan at 1,111 MW, SDS at 875 MW in Nesher, and 720 MW at Neve Yamin. Each is several times the ceiling (5.56×, 4.38×, 3.60×, ours). Together they ask for 2,706 MW, 2.08 times the entire 1,300 MW of new connections (ours). The plenum did not name a new power station. It rationed the socket.

That is a different question from 16 October, when dedicated power stayed unnamed above 250 MW — a Kentucky tariff line on Meta's first building. It is not NiSource's named-plant price. It is not utilities billing before power, and it is not halls signed before customers. Israel already has a queue. The new paper puts a cap on each site, a bank guarantee on the request, and an off-switch on the hall. Speed-to-power is the free map of that long clock. Today's Wire gave the 200 MW and the 27 GW. This map asks: when the building is not the scarce object, who is paid while the approved connection is?

Three clocks around it are not the bind. The building can still be poured: Calcalist puts a 200 MW site at more than NIS 4 billion, about $1.29 billion at 3.1100 (ours). The chips are already invoicing somewhere else: Hygon's 19 October filing booked RMB 14.95 billion of nine-month sales and sent cash upstream as inventory and prepayments. The chambers are already recognised: Lam's June quarter printed $4.250 billion of systems. None of those invoices needs an Israeli 200 MW slot. What is left is an approved connection, and behind it, 18,800 MW of plant against a 27,000 MW ask.

The full decision has not been published. A three-week consultation can still change the cap, the guarantee and the disconnection terms. First new approvals, Globes says, are at least several months away. We map the plenum that was reported, not a rule that has not been posted.

What does the map already assume?

Three answers compete: the final text lets megaprojects stack 200 MW steps or bring their own plant, and more of the queue converts (A); the cap, the 1,300 MW allocation and the guarantee hold, already-approved connections become the product, and 25,700 MW of requests wait (B); or the consultation hardens the off-switch until a 200 MW hall is a harder lease than the cap (C). A tip sheet would pick a developer. Analysis asks which answer Sunday night's plenum already needs.

Our read, in one line: the map already assumes Scenario B. 1,300 MW against 27,000 MW is 4.81% (ours). The whole queue would need NIS 54 billion of guarantees, about $17.4 billion (ours). Most of it will not post them. The 2,000 MW already approved does not wait on that paper. This is the inverse of halls signed before customers: here the scarce object is the approved watt, not the signed hall. The scenarios and the arithmetic are below.

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