Analysis
Members' Analysis: one question at the stuck step, worked through with the numbers, three scenarios and what would change the view. Free preview, full piece for paid members. Education only, not investment advice.
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Analysis
Amazon can buy chips months ahead and sign power for 20 years. It cannot buy a county's yes. At about $2.76 trillion, how much of that permission clock has the price allowed for?
Analysis
More GPU buyers are ordering next year's chips before anyone signs to rent them. The chips get paid for when they ship. The buyer gets paid only when a renter signs. Where does the cash sit in between?
Analysis
Oracle's 125–250 MW Point Beach offer is a cheque swap on a plant that already runs — not new megawatts, and not a billed hall until the Wisconsin commission files and votes.
Analysis
Micron can raise prices and buy tools early, but it cannot make many more DRAM chips until new clean rooms are built and ramped. At about $1.21 trillion, what does the price already assume about that clock?
Analysis
Amazon ~$8B Grace Blackwell SPV talks and Broadcom's ~$60B AI chip package open the financing clock — not settled cash. Where does cash stick before a billed hour?
Analysis
Nebius sits at the idle-GPU / utilization stuck step — assigned seats warm for cold starts and SLA spare capacity before a billed hour. At roughly $63.7 billion on about $3.0 billion of ARR, what does that price already assume?
Analysis
When industry HBM is set to take nearly 30% of DRAM wafers — up from about 20% — and CoWoS-class attach still binds, where does cash stick on the semiconductor map before a customer pays for a working GPU hour?
Analysis
Samsung sits at the memory wafer-pool stuck step — DRAM starts that can become HBM stacks or commodity DRAM, then still need attach before a billed GPU hour. At roughly ₩1.735 trillion (~$1.28 trillion), what does that price already assume?
Analysis
Two cash clocks printed this week that are not a billed GPU hour: TSMC’s split August check, and Crusoe as developer of Google’s Armstrong County campus. The stuck step is still the CoWoS join.
Analysis
When committed take-or-pay is about 98% of neocloud revenue and contracted power sits about 2.5× active power, what stuck step does the map already assume — the delivery gate that starts the bill, offtake softness, or concentration and credit?
Analysis
Oracle sits at the hyperscaler power stuck step — lit megawatts that already clear billed hours versus announced gigawatts still waiting on power paper. At roughly $414 billion, what does that price already assume?
Analysis
Oracle delivered 850 MW and the fleet still ran 97.9% full. A 1.8 GW campus sat behind a $1 letter of credit. Who gets paid inside the power clock: accepted halls, or interconnect paper.
